Hamas has elected Khalil al-Hayya as chairman of its Political Bureau, replacing Yahya Sinwar after defeating veteran leader Khaled Mashaal in the movement’s internal elections, according to Hamas and senior officials quoted by Agence France-Presse. His appointment comes as Hamas faces mounting pressure over Gaza’s postwar governance, the restructuring of its leadership, and the future of its military wing.

Details

• The vote: Hamas announced al-Hayya’s election, while a senior Hamas official told AFP he secured a majority of votes. Israeli media described the race against Khaled Mashaal as highly competitive.
• Iran ties: Al-Hayya is considered one of Hamas’ closest figures to Tehran. He accompanied Ismail Haniyeh on multiple visits to Iran and helped restore Hamas’ relationship with Syria in 2022 as part of the movement’s return to Iran’s regional alliance, according to Reuters and regional policy institutes.
• Chief negotiator: Al-Hayya headed Hamas’ negotiating team during ceasefire and hostage-release talks and emerged as the movement’s most prominent political figure after the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, with much of Hamas’ decision-making shifting to its external leadership in Doha.
• Disarmament stance: Throughout the war, al-Hayya repeatedly rejected proposals calling for Hamas to disarm, arguing that the group’s weapons are a Palestinian decision. Israel and the United States, meanwhile, continue to insist that any lasting postwar arrangement must include the dismantling of Hamas’ military capabilities.
• Leadership direction: Analysts view al-Hayya’s victory as a triumph for the faction most closely aligned with Iran over the camp represented by Mashaal, who had pursued relatively broader engagement with Qatar, Turkey, and several Arab governments.

Background

Relations between Hamas and Iran deteriorated after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, when Hamas under Khaled Mashaal backed the Syrian opposition. However, ties gradually recovered from 2017 onward with the rise of Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, eventually evolving into renewed military, financial, and political cooperation that restored Tehran as Hamas’ principal external backer, according to Reuters and multiple research institutions.

Between the lines

Al-Hayya’s election suggests Hamas has chosen continuity rather than strategic moderation. He belongs to the camp that views retaining the movement’s weapons as essential to preserving its influence in Gaza, making international efforts to secure Hamas’ disarmament significantly more difficult. His close relationship with Tehran also indicates that Iranian influence is likely to remain central to Hamas’ strategic decision-making, even as the group continues relying on Qatar and Turkey for political and logistical support.

What to watch

Attention will now shift to the formation of Hamas’ new Political Bureau and the leadership’s approach to ongoing ceasefire negotiations. The movement’s position on postwar governance in Gaza and any future discussions over disarmament will likely determine the trajectory of talks with mediators, the United States, Israel, and regional stakeholders.

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The United States and Iran moved closer to a wider military confrontation after the U.S. military announced that two American service members were killed and another remains missing following an Iranian attack on a base hosting U.S. forces in Jordan. Washington responded with strikes targeting Iranian military facilities and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces.

Details

• U.S. response: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the strikes targeted coastal surveillance sites, air defense facilities, and forces it said were responsible for the attack on American troops in Jordan.
• Iranian attacks: Iranian state media reported that U.S. strikes hit sites in Sirik, Bandar Abbas, and Qeshm Island. Iran also announced attacks targeting Kuwait, while Bahrain and Jordan said they intercepted missiles and drones.
• U.S. casualties: The U.S. military confirmed the deaths of two service members and the disappearance of a third. The Wall Street Journal reported that the attack targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
• Military buildup: The Wall Street Journal and Israeli media reported that additional U.S. aerial refueling aircraft and fighter jets have arrived in the region as Washington tightened its travel advisory for the Middle East and later issued a worldwide security alert.
• Israel kept out: Israeli media, citing Israeli officials, reported that Washington currently does not want Israel to participate in military operations despite close security coordination, in an effort to limit further regional escalation.

Background

The latest escalation followed the collapse of the understanding announced by President Donald Trump with Iran weeks ago. Since then, the conflict has expanded to include attacks on military bases, critical infrastructure, and strategic locations across the Gulf, while prospects for renewed diplomacy have diminished.

Between the lines

The deaths of U.S. service members mark a significant turning point, increasing pressure within the Trump administration for a stronger military response. At the same time, according to Israeli officials, Washington is seeking to keep Israel out of the fighting to reduce the risk of the conflict expanding into a multi-front regional war.

What to watch

Attention will focus on the scale of any additional U.S. military response, whether Iran broadens its attacks on American bases or regional infrastructure, and whether diplomatic efforts emerge to prevent further escalation.

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The United States is strengthening its capacity to conduct a broader air campaign against Iran after notifying Israel that it plans to deploy dozens of additional refueling aircraft in the coming days. The move comes as President Donald Trump considers operations extending beyond the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian energy, nuclear and infrastructure targets.

Pickaxe Mountain is among the most difficult potential targets. Iran has built a tunnel network inside a granite mountain, with workspaces potentially covering 6,200 square yards at depths of 330 to 475 feet. Uncertainty over its ventilation shafts and internal passages could make an attack more complicated than the 2025 strike on Fordow.

The preparations coincide with an expanding cycle of attacks on critical infrastructure. Washington has bombed bridges and logistics sites in southern Iran, while Tehran has targeted US bases and power and water facilities across the Gulf. To the west, the Houthis have threatened Saudi airports, ports and oil infrastructure, placing the kingdom’s export route through Yanbu and Bab al-Mandeb under growing pressure.

Details

• Air buildup: About 60 US refueling aircraft are currently deployed at Ben Gurion and Ramon airports, with dozens more potentially on the way.
• Campaign objective: Trump is seeking to force Iran to reopen Hormuz and accept US nuclear demands, but has not made a final decision on escalation.
• Oil route: Saudi Arabia is moving about four million barrels a day through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
• Falling flows: Average oil transit through Hormuz has dropped to about 5.5 million barrels a day from 9.4 million the previous week.
• Price pressure: Brent crude approached $87 a barrel after rising 13% in one week.

Between the lines

Deploying more refueling aircraft does not confirm that a full-scale offensive has been ordered, but it creates the capacity to launch one quickly. Meanwhile, the threat to Bab al-Mandeb gives Iran and its allies leverage extending beyond the battlefield to the global economy.

What to watch

Attention will focus on Trump’s decision over Pickaxe and other Iranian facilities, as well as Israel’s response to the proposed aircraft deployment. Any Houthi attack on Yanbu or shipping in Bab al-Mandeb would signal a shift from the disruption of one strategic oil corridor to the simultaneous endangerment of two.

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The latest U.S. attacks were not merely tactical retaliation. By targeting air defenses, coastal radars, missile sites, drones and small naval craft, Washington has been shaping the battlefield for possible operations beyond the air campaign.

Kharg Island is central to those options. It handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, giving any occupying force direct leverage over Tehran’s main source of revenue. Washington has already struck military targets there while sparing key oil infrastructure, preserving the island’s value as a bargaining asset.

Details

• Military groundwork: Degrading coastal defenses reduces the danger facing U.S. aircraft, ships and landing forces.
• Economic leverage: Control of Kharg could sharply restrict Iranian oil income and strengthen Washington’s position in negotiations.
• Force requirements: Estimates suggest 800 to 1,000 troops might secure the island initially, but sustaining and protecting them would require a much larger operation.
• Exposed position: Kharg lies about 26 kilometres from Iran’s coast, within range of short-range missiles, drones, artillery and attack boats.
• Iranian response: Tehran could intensify mining and attacks on commercial shipping, undermining the stated goal of reopening maritime routes.
• Pickaxe Mountain: Washington is also considering the fortified nuclear-linked complex, though its depth may limit the effectiveness of bunker-buster bombs.
• Strategic gap: U.S. forces have achieved tactical superiority, but Iran has not accepted Washington’s demands or abandoned its pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.

Between the lines

The probability of an operation has increased because some of the necessary battlefield preparation is already underway. Yet Trump can extract diplomatic value from the threat without ordering an occupation.

A tighter maritime blockade would pressure Iran’s economy while avoiding the immediate danger of placing American troops on exposed Iranian territory. Occupation becomes more likely if talks fail, shipping attacks continue and airstrikes prove unable to change Tehran’s calculations.

What to watch

Key indicators include additional Marine or airborne deployments, movement of landing ships and minesweepers, and intensified strikes on defenses opposite Kharg. Those actions would matter more than Trump’s public threats.

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The latest:

New Israeli intelligence points to an Iranian plan to kill Trump, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. Iran’s U.N. mission didn’t respond, Israel’s embassy in Washington declined to comment, and the White House pointed to the president’s own remarks.

Details:

• The claim: Israel said the intelligence exposed a fresh Iranian plot, a finding it framed as an escalation of the war with Washington.

• The motive: Tehran has vowed for years to retaliate for the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Trump’s first term.

• Trump’s response: In Ankara on Wednesday, he said he sits on every Iranian target list, adding: “They want to take out the U.S. leader—me.”

• The rift: Trump and Netanyahu have splintered over the Iran war—Netanyahu wants to press the strikes, while Trump seeks an exit, citing risks to the global economy.

What to watch:

Trump and Netanyahu spoke Thursday and agreed to keep coordinating, with Trump briefing him on recent U.S. activity in the Gulf. Watch for any U.S. security response and the fate of last month’s fragile Iran ceasefire.:

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Axios reported that Senator Lindsey Graham, who died suddenly on Saturday, spent his final weeks laying the groundwork for a renewed push to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. According to the report, Graham saw the effort as the central diplomatic prize in a broader postwar settlement with Iran, and as a rare opening that could hand Donald Trump a historic regional deal.

Trump underscored Graham’s political weight in a public tribute, calling him a dear friend and “a truly great man” who had done so much for the United States and for South Carolina. He ordered American flags across the country lowered to half-staff until Saturday evening at 6 p.m. The statement highlighted how closely Graham was tied to Trump’s foreign-policy orbit, and why his death is being viewed as a loss that reaches beyond the Senate into national security and regional diplomacy.

Graham’s plan was to launch an intensive diplomatic push after Israel’s October election and the U.S. midterms, with the aim of putting a deal together before the new Congress was sworn in in January. But he believed that first required bringing the Iran war under control, especially the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Even then, two political hurdles remained: securing Senate backing for a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty, and the emergence of an Israeli government prepared to meet Saudi conditions on a Palestinian state.

Details

• Strategic aim: Graham saw Saudi-Israel normalization as the top prize in a postwar regional settlement, not as a stand-alone bilateral file.
• Timing: He wanted intensive work to begin in September so that the main elements of a deal could be in place by November.
• Security condition: He believed that lowering tensions with Iran and stabilizing the Hormuz crisis had to come before any successful political push.
• Defense pact: A proposed U.S.-Saudi defense treaty was one of the core pillars of the package, with most of its text negotiated during the Biden administration.
• Senate math: Graham believed the post-election lame-duck session could be the only realistic window for ratifying such a treaty with a two-thirds majority.
• Saudi condition: Saudi officials maintained that any agreement had to include a clear, time-bound and irreversible path toward a Palestinian state.
• Israeli obstacle: Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government rejected that condition, making the composition of the next Israeli government decisive.
• Trump tribute: Trump ordered U.S. flags lowered to half-staff and praised Graham’s record, underscoring his standing inside the president’s inner political circle.

Between the lines

Trump’s tribute gives the story a sharper American political dimension. Graham’s death does not only remove a hawkish Republican voice from Washington. It also removes an active channel of pressure and coordination between Trump and some of the region’s most sensitive files, from Iran to Saudi-Israel normalization. The absence may be felt in pace as much as in policy.

What to watch

The next test is whether the Trump camp keeps this track near the top of its regional agenda after Graham’s death, what kind of government emerges from Israel’s election, and whether Washington can reconcile a clear Saudi demand on Palestinian statehood with Israel’s desire for normalization without paying a comparable political price.

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The Peace Council, the U.S.-backed body overseeing plans for Gaza’s post-war transition, is preparing to launch a pilot humanitarian housing project in Rafah despite the ongoing deadlock over Hamas disarmament. However, implementation still depends on Israeli approval, the deployment of an international stabilization force, and the participation of a Palestinian technocratic committee.

Details

• Project concept: The proposal envisions a secure humanitarian zone providing temporary housing, aid, and essential services for tens of thousands of Palestinians under the administration of a Palestinian technocratic committee.
• Security arrangements: Israeli forces would withdraw from the designated area, with an international stabilization force securing its perimeter while Palestinian officials screen civilians entering the zone.
• Key obstacles: An Israeli official said no military withdrawal would take place before Hamas agrees to disarm, while legal and political hurdles continue to delay the deployment of the international force.
• Concerns raised: Some informed sources and humanitarian figures warn the zone could effectively partition Gaza or restrict civilian movement. The Peace Council insists residents would be free to enter and leave and that Israel would not directly administer the area.

Background

The Peace Council was established as part of the U.S. plan for post-war Gaza. The broader proposal calls for a transitional Palestinian technocratic administration, an international stabilization force, expanded humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction alongside the removal of Hamas from governing the territory. Progress has largely stalled because of disagreements over disarmament and security arrangements.

What to watch

Attention now focuses on whether Israel will approve the pilot project, whether participating countries can deploy the planned stabilization force, and whether the Palestinian technocratic committee will agree to enter Gaza before a final agreement on Hamas disarmament is reached.

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Israel has shared intelligence with the United States indicating that Iran is pursuing a new plot to assassinate President Donald Trump, according to The Wall Street Journal. CNN reported that U.S. intelligence agencies had already been receiving a steady stream of information in recent weeks about potential threats, although the specific alleged plot has not been independently confirmed.

Details

• Israeli warning: The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Israel provided Washington this week with intelligence describing a specific alleged assassination plot targeting Trump.
• U.S. assessment: CNN reported that American intelligence agencies had already been monitoring a continuous flow of information about potential threats. Some U.S. officials reportedly viewed the Israeli warning as part of a broader effort to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran.
• White House response: The White House referred reporters to Trump’s recent public remarks, in which he said Iran wanted to kill him, without directly confirming the intelligence report.
• Previous case: The U.S. Department of Justice announced in November 2024 criminal charges tied to an alleged Iranian plot involving a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused of surveilling Trump and planning his assassination.
• Broader context: U.S. officials have consistently linked Iranian threats against Trump to the 2020 drone strike that killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. Iran has repeatedly denied involvement in assassination plots inside the United States.

Background

Since Soleimani’s killing, the United States has significantly increased security protections for Trump and several current and former officials. The Justice Department has announced multiple cases alleging Iranian-linked assassination plots, while Tehran has consistently rejected the accusations as politically motivated.

What to watch

Attention will now focus on whether Washington announces additional security measures or releases new intelligence, and whether the reported threats affect ongoing U.S. diplomacy with Iran or future military decisions.

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Iranian-linked hackers are using a new framework to breach trusted technology service providers and reach Israeli government and tech-sector targets through malware disguised as legitimate updates, according to Check Point Research.

Details

• The group: Check Point linked Cavern Manticore to Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, saying it has monitored the group since early 2026.

• Attack method: The report said the tool abuses remote monitoring and management, or RMM, systems to move through multiple providers before reaching the final target.

• Malware capabilities: Check Point said the malware can extract files, download additional tools, test passwords and push deeper into compromised networks.

• Company assessment: Check Point assessed that the group has a detailed understanding of Israel’s tech supply chains and warned of advancing Iranian cyber capabilities.

What to watch

Key signals now include any official Israeli response, possible alerts to RMM service providers, and whether the campaign expands into other sectors or targets beyond Israel.

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Hamas announced Monday that it had dissolved the government that administered the Gaza Strip and ended the work of the government committee overseeing ministries, paving the way for the transfer of civilian administration to a Palestinian national technocratic committee under the ceasefire arrangements and the post-war governance plan.

The movement said ministries and civilian employees would continue operating during the transition, while some security responsibilities would remain under Hamas’ control until the agreed arrangements are completed, leaving the transfer of authority incomplete for now.

Details

• This is Hamas’ first official announcement that it is relinquishing the government that had effectively ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007.
• The move implements a key element of the post-war plan, which envisions Gaza being administered by an independent Palestinian technocratic committee rather than armed factions.
• The decision does not include the disarmament of Hamas, which remains the largest obstacle to completing the agreement, reconstruction efforts, and a full Israeli military withdrawal.
• Israel continues to control large areas of the Gaza Strip, while military strikes have continued despite the ceasefire, complicating implementation of the remaining provisions of the agreement.
• Since the war began, Gaza has suffered extensive destruction of infrastructure, homes, and government institutions, while most of its population has been displaced and millions of Palestinians remain dependent on humanitarian aid.

What’s next?

The success of the transition will depend on several unresolved issues, including:

• The actual transfer of governing authority to the new committee.
• The restoration of public institutions and essential services.
• The future of Hamas’ weapons.
• The scope of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.
• The launch of reconstruction efforts and the return of displaced residents.

So far, there are no indications of a final agreement on these issues, making the dissolution of the government the beginning of a transitional phase rather than the end of the conflict.

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