The latest:
Israel’s military is refreshing its Iranian target bank and keeping the air force on alert for both defensive and offensive missions, security sources said, as the prospect of a joint operation with Washington recedes. The defense establishment identifies no immediate Iranian attack preparations at this stage. Sources briefed on the deliberations said Israel may ultimately have to move alone.
Details:
- The uranium problem: Western intelligence sources said Iran still holds roughly 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium at a known location. Security sources said nuclear targets were only lightly struck during the Eagle’s Roar operation, leaving Israel’s central concern the absence of any monitoring over stockpiles of that size.
- The IAEA report: A report obtained by Reuters and circulated before next week’s Board of Governors meeting expressed growing concern over an enrichment facility at the Isfahan complex, known as IFEP, declared by Iran last year but never opened to inspection. The agency said it does not know the site’s exact location or whether it contains nuclear material.
- The expert warning: Iranian nuclear expert Avner Vilan, a former senior figure in the defense establishment, warned that the findings raise troubling questions about the scope of Iran’s program and about Israeli and American ability to track its activity after the strikes.
- US naval posture: About 17 warships are deployed in the CENTCOM area, including two aircraft carriers, 13 destroyers and a cruiser, comparable to March. The carrier Theodore Roosevelt is expected with its strike group, though some reports indicate it would replace the George Washington rather than add to the force.
- Air power gap: According to Institute for National Security Studies data cited by researcher Steven Cohen, roughly 200 American fighter jets and about 200 refueling aircraft are currently in the region. Unlike March, the bombers that flew over Iranian airspace have not yet been deployed to designated regional bases.
- Defensive reinforcement: At least 16 American transport aircraft have landed at Ovda base since mid-October. Washington transferred a Patriot interceptor battery to Israel and added further air defense systems across the region. Israeli-Greek naval cooperation has also been expanded.
- Iranian missile claims: Tasnim news agency claimed Iran can extend its missile range beyond 2,000 kilometers, and that reducing the Khorramshahr-4 warhead weight could push it to between 3,000 and 4,000 kilometers, reaching American and allied bases in parts of Europe. Striking the US east coast would require roughly 10,000 kilometers.
- Tehran’s rhetoric: Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mahabi claimed restrictions on Iranian missile range have been lifted. Days earlier, a warning issued in the name of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said any threat from Israel or the United States would be met with a response carrying “no geographic limits.”
- Threat to US officials: Israel supplied Washington with concrete intelligence on Iranian intentions to harm senior American government figures, including President Donald Trump, with drones among the options assessed. Reports followed that senior US officials had relocated to military bases.
- The political split: Netanyahu is pressing for an operation in Iran but faces opposition from Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir over timing and the absence of American backing. Mossad chief Roman Gofman traveled to the United States as part of Israel’s effort to secure renewed strikes.
Background:
Israel’s previous campaign, Eagle’s Roar, established air superiority but barely touched nuclear sites. Netanyahu has spoken publicly about toppling the Iranian government, an outcome unlikely to follow from a single air operation.
Between the lines:
The gap between Netanyahu’s declared objective and what the previous round actually achieved is the unresolved question inside the Israeli system. Security sources frame it as one the political level must answer: what is the purpose of another round. With bombers absent from regional bases and the carrier rotation possibly a swap rather than a buildup, the American force picture reads closer to posture than preparation.
What’s next
Netanyahu convenes the political-security cabinet Sunday evening, its first meeting under the caretaker government. The IAEA Board of Governors meets next week on the Isfahan facility. Trump heads to China for a summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
