Key Points
- OpenAI and Anthropic have delayed trillion-dollar listings, with OpenAI now unlikely to float before 2027.
- Data centre developer SB Energy and nuclear group Holtec also postponed IPOs in the past week.
- Wall Street's largest-ever investment boom rests on valuations tied to AI labs' future computing demand.
The latest:
The two most valuable AI labs have pushed back what would be among the largest listings in stock market history, the Financial Times reported. OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman said this month a float was unlikely before 2027, calling it an ill-advised moment to go public. Anthropic’s prospectus, once expected shortly after Labor Day, has not landed.
Details:
- The valuations: Anthropic had been expected to seek an IPO valuing it at $2tn or more, according to the FT, and is now reportedly targeting a November listing — leaving little margin for error before the winter holidays. OpenAI is weighing a private funding round at a $1.2tn valuation instead of an autumn float.
- The revenue picture: OpenAI, which remains heavily lossmaking, is on track for $36bn in revenue this year, the FT reported. Anthropic hit annualised revenue of $65bn at the end of July and has told backers it will be profitable this quarter, though on a heavily adjusted basis.
- The growth rate: Usage of tokens, the units of data that make up AI queries, has expanded 250 times since the start of last year, according to OpenRouter. A widening network of tech groups and data centre developers is increasingly dependent on both labs for future revenues.
- The commercial risks: The FT cited possible price wars as the labs try to stay ahead of cheaper, more easily customisable open-source models. Both also face the risk that AI tools become commoditised if customers stop needing the most cutting-edge models available.
- The political backlash: Voters were already worried about rising energy costs and job losses when an Anthropic researcher and former OpenAI employee wrote on X this month that “the people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade”.
- The founders’ response: Altman and Elon Musk have since rallied behind a call from Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei to slow AI development, according to the FT. Neither of the two leading labs has indicated it will abandon its listing plans altogether.
- Infrastructure hit: SoftBank’s US data centre developer SB Energy and nuclear energy group Holtec International, which hopes to power AI data centres, both delayed IPOs over the past week. Holtec chief executive Kris Singh said the company faced a perfect storm of adverse market sentiment around AI data centres.
- Debt under strain: Loans worth $18bn tied to a data centre leased to Oracle slid into stressed territory on Friday, the FT reported, following fierce local opposition and state permitting challenges. Infrastructure valuations rest on expectations of the labs’ astronomical demand for computing power in coming years.
Between the lines:
The delays cluster at two levels at once. The labs are postponing listings while their token usage grows 250-fold and revenues climb, which points to timing and sentiment rather than deteriorating business fundamentals. But the stalled infrastructure IPOs and stressed Oracle-linked loans suggest the market is repricing the second tier first — the developers whose economics depend entirely on the labs’ projected compute demand rather than on current revenue.
What’s next
Watch whether Anthropic’s prospectus lands in time for a November listing, whether OpenAI completes the $1.2tn private round, and whether SB Energy or Holtec reset IPO dates as Oracle-linked data centre loans trade.
