US intelligence estimates show that Iran managed during the ceasefire to restore a significant part of its missile capability by recovering additional launchers from sites that had previously been bombed.
According to these estimates, Tehran raised the number of available launchers to around 60% of its pre-war level, while still retaining a meaningful share of its drone capabilities.
Details
- Tehran excavated around 100 additional missile launchers from bombed sites since the 8 April ceasefire.
- US estimates say Iran has recovered roughly 60% of the missile launchers it had before the war.
- Iran also still retains around 40% of its drone arsenal.
- The dispersal and burial of weapons before the war reduced the impact of more than 13,000 US and Israeli strikes during Operation Epic Fury.
- These assessments suggest that the large-scale strikes did not fully disable Iran’s capabilities, but reduced them without eliminating them.
The assessment comes as the current ceasefire nears its 22 April expiration, while Iran has reimposed shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
What’s Next?
If the ceasefire ends without a broader agreement, Iran’s recovery of a significant share of its launchers and drones means any renewed escalation could begin from a higher military baseline than previously assumed.
