Iran Strikes Bahrain Again as U.S. Puts Missile Stockpile at 2,500

The latest:

Blasts were heard around Manama early Sunday after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it sent six drones at radar positions at Bahrain’s Riffa Air Base, just south of the capital. Bahraini authorities sounded missile-alert sirens twice and told residents to shelter. The kingdom, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, did not respond to requests for comment.

Details:

• The damage: It was not immediately clear whether the drones caused damage, though people around Manama reported hearing explosions. Bahrain’s government issued no assessment, and the Revolutionary Guard’s claim of targeting radar positions was the only account of what the attack was meant to achieve.
• Days earlier: The strike followed Iran’s first attack on the island in two months. Tehran said it targeted an American early-warning radar in retaliation for U.S. strikes on southern Iran. U.S. Central Command said it shot down two Iranian drones then and that no damage was caused.
• The missile count: The U.S. intelligence community assesses Iran holds between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles, U.S. officials said, enough to strike American and allied targets if full-scale war resumes. Officials described it as a low-confidence assessment given the difficulty of tracking launch-ready and stored inventory.
• The rebuild: Despite damage to production facilities, Iran has kept rebuilding its arsenal from stockpiled components, more slowly than before the war, officials said. Tehran also retains large numbers of drones and short-range missiles. Israeli military officials similarly put the ballistic-missile figure above 1,500.
• Half the prewar stock: Simone Ledeen, a deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East in Trump’s first term, said even the low-end 1,500 would mean Iran had replenished more than half its estimated prewar arsenal, and that Tehran fully rebuilt it between the June 2025 war and February’s.
• The policy fight: The reconstitution has fed internal Trump administration debate over resuming strikes alongside Israel, U.S. officials said. Trump has so far opted for economic pressure, a naval blockade and sanctions, while pressing Iran’s neighbors to halt overland trade.
• Allies split: Gulf states have told Washington they oppose a return to war because Iran could retaliate against them with missiles and drones. Caretaker Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues pushing for renewed operations, and Mossad chief Roman Gofman held talks in Washington on Friday.
• Washington’s line: A White House official said Operation Epic Fury had left Iranian forces helpless and the economic campaign had weakened the government more than ever. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Tuesday that Iran’s defense-industrial base was “gone” and more than 80% of its nuclear-industrial base destroyed. In a Veterans Day address Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. had won but demanded total victory rather than a 93% one, and later told radio host Hugh Hewitt it would be a defeat if Iran’s government survived his term.
• The underground sites: The Wall Street Journal reported in April that Iran retained thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles in underground facilities. U.S. and Israeli strikes collapsed the entrances, but satellite imagery later showed Iran had dug out access to some. An Israeli official said those missiles likely survived intact.
• Hormuz skirmishes: U.S. forces have struck Iranian sites in recent weeks including Qeshm Island, home to a major Revolutionary Guard naval facility used to launch drones and missiles. U.S. and Gulf officials said the aim is to stop attacks on shipping; Trump called the strikes minor.

Background:

The war is in its ninth month, having begun in February after a 12-day conflict in June 2025. Destroying Iran’s ballistic-missile capability was a stated U.S. and Israeli goal, and both declared success, with Netanyahu saying the program had been crushed.

Between the lines:

The gap between the 1,500-to-2,500 estimate and Hegseth’s assessment that Iran’s defense-industrial base is gone defines the policy argument now. Analysts cited by the Journal argue capability is not only inventory: Bilal Saab of Trends US said Iranian commanders have learned to be more effective, and officials pointed to better targeting data, partly via Russia, and mixed missile-drone tactics.

What’s next

Watch whether Bahrain or Central Command reports damage from Sunday’s strike, whether the Trump administration moves from blockade to renewed strikes, and whether Netanyahu’s push gains traction after the Gofman talks in Washington.