The first Star Wars theatrical film in 7 years could face a weak start, as Disney bets on The Mandalorian and Grogu to return the franchise to cinemas, relying on the popularity of Grogu, widely known as Baby Yoda.
Details
• Morning Brew says the film could make between $80 million and $100 million domestically over the weekend, putting it at risk of recording the worst opening for a Star Wars film.
• These projections come below the level of Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened over Memorial Day weekend in 2018 and remains the only Star Wars film to lose money.
• Preview revenue indicates that The Mandalorian and Grogu is already behind Solo, deepening concerns about audience softness ahead of the wide opening.
• The first obstacle is that the film is a continuation of a Disney+ series that began in 2019 and introduced audiences to Baby Yoda, which may lead some viewers to assume that watching the series is required to understand the movie.
• The second obstacle is that some fans of the series itself may not be enthusiastic about the film, after reviews for The Mandalorian worsened by its third and final season in 2023.
• The reason for pushing Grogu to theaters is clear: his adventures with Mando, played by Pedro Pascal, are among the most family-friendly Star Wars content, and Memorial Day weekend is a prime window for casual moviegoers.
• Even if the film disappoints at the box office, some analysts believe it could still revive sales of Grogu merchandise, an important commercial card for Disney.
• Disney needs a clear win with Star Wars fans, some of whom have remained concerned about the company’s handling of the franchise since its acquisition of Lucasfilm in 2012.
• The Force Awakens was a massive success in 2015 and became the highest-grossing film domestically in U.S. history, but momentum later slowed.
• The franchise’s last theatrical film, The Rise of Skywalker in 2019, received mixed reviews and earned about half as much as The Force Awakens.
• Disney’s problem is not limited to Star Wars; even its superhero films are under pressure at the box office, after Warner Bros.’ Superman outgrossed every Marvel release last year, ending a 17-year winning streak for the MCU.
What Next?
The performance of The Mandalorian and Grogu will determine whether Disney can restore Star Wars as a theatrical force, or whether the franchise has become stronger on Disney+ and in merchandise than on the big screen.
