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Brent touches $110 as Middle East, Russia supply fears mount

Ahmed Kawah

Also in: Oil & Energy

Key Points

  1. Brent settled 3.7% higher at $109.86, its strongest level since May 19.
  2. A Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a ballistic missile fired toward the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
  3. Yanbu is central to Saudi efforts to route crude around the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest:

Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May, settling $3.94 higher at $109.86 as traders priced in a tighter global supply picture. US West Texas Intermediate closed $3.44, or 3.5%, higher at $101.41, its highest since September 17. The move followed reports of threats to Saudi energy infrastructure and fresh questions over Russian diesel exports.

Details:

  • The numbers: Brent settled 3.7% higher at $109.86 a barrel, the highest close since May 19, according to Reuters. WTI gained 3.5% to $101.41, its best level since September 17. Over the week, Brent has risen 4.9% and WTI 10.4%, with the gap pointing to a sharper move in the US benchmark.
  • The Yanbu strike: A Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched toward the Red Sea city of Yanbu. The port is critical to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and keep crude flowing to international markets, making any threat to it a direct supply question rather than a localized security incident.
  • Damage assessment: Consultants Rapidan Energy Group said initial reports indicated no damage to Yanbu infrastructure. The absence of confirmed physical damage did not reverse the day’s rally, with prices holding their gains through the settlement.
  • The market read: Research and consultancy Energy Aspects said WTI and Brent reversed earlier losses as escalation fears resurfaced amid rumours of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The firm framed the session as a risk-premium move rather than a response to a confirmed physical disruption.
  • The Iran claim: Energy Aspects said Israeli reports suggest Iran may be preparing a pre-emptive strike following unusual military movements detected by Western intelligence. The consultancy described those developments as “unverified” and said they nonetheless reinforce its view that persistent escalation risks will keep flat prices supported.
  • Russian supply: Russia’s Ryazan refinery suspended operations at a primary crude distillation unit, adding to investor questions over how much diesel Moscow can deliver to the global market. No restart timeline was announced for the unit.
  • Washington’s response: The United States offered 17 million barrels of crude oil for exchange from its emergency reserve, a mechanism that places barrels with refiners for later return rather than selling them outright. The offer signals official concern about near-term availability even as prices set multi-month highs.
  • Why Hormuz matters: Yanbu sits on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast and anchors the kingdom’s alternative export route, designed to keep barrels moving if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. A credible threat to that route narrows the options available to Gulf exporters.

Background:

Brent last traded at $110 in May. Prices have climbed through this week on a combination of Middle East security incidents and uncertainty over Russian refining capacity, with both the Saudi and Russian strands feeding the same supply-tightness trade.

Between the lines:

The session’s logic rests on risk, not barrels. Rapidan reported no damage at Yanbu and the Iranian strike reports remain unverified, yet Brent still closed 3.7% higher — a market pricing the possibility of disruption rather than disruption itself. The Ryazan suspension and the 17-million-barrel US reserve offer add a second, physical layer: supply concerns are no longer confined to one geography.

What’s next

Watch for confirmation of Yanbu’s operating status, a restart date for the Ryazan distillation unit, and the take-up on Washington’s 17-million-barrel exchange offer. Any further missile activity toward Red Sea ports would test the current risk premium.

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