Netflix’s Selling Sunset brokerage opens Dubai office after market slump

The latest:

The Oppenheim Group, the brokerage behind Netflix’s Selling Sunset, opened its first office outside North America in Dubai last month, staffing it with 20 brokers and reporting listings worth more than Dh350mn ($95.3mn) within a week. President Jason Oppenheim told the Financial Times he expects Dubai to become the group’s highest-volume office within a couple of years.

Details:

• The timing: The launch was announced roughly two months before US and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered retaliatory strikes on Dubai on February 28, according to the Financial Times. A campaign was ready and several million dollars already spent. Managing partner Omar Abaza said the group never considered pausing.
• The correction: Residential sales registrations fell 21% in March from the previous month, per Dubai Land Department, and by September monthly transactions remained 36% below January. Average values dropped from Dh3.801mn ($1.03mn) in January to Dh2.09mn ($560,000) in June, recovering to Dh2.26mn ($610,000) by September.
• The Los Angeles math: Oppenheim said he kept returning to $5.4mn, the threshold where Los Angeles’s Measure ULA mansion tax applies. In the first eight months of 2026, 233 Los Angeles single-family homes sold above that line, against 1,314 Dubai residential sales above Dh20mn ($5.45mn) over the same period.
• The narrower gap: Property Monitor analysis of Dubai Land Department registrations shows sales at Dh20mn or more fell 32% across July and August versus 2025, from 292 to 199. Those 199 still outnumbered the 136 Los Angeles transactions of any kind subject to the mansion tax in the same 2026 months.
• The developer’s view: Hamed Ghavidel, founder and chief executive of Mercury Projects, said the conflict accelerated a correction already under way and acted as a stress test of Dubai’s safety reputation. He said expectations of a 2009-style nosedive did not materialise, which he argued has itself reassured investors.
• The skepticism: Ghavidel questioned whether the group can capture the opportunity, arguing Dubai needs better brokers rather than more. He said he has worked with high-profile agents who filmed properties, promised fast sales, and then brought nobody through the door. He remains open to granting a mandate.
• The agency view: Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency for the Middle East at Savills, noted transactions are down from a record base: Savills logged more than 200,000 residential sales in 2025, up 18% and a third straight annual record. He put the decline in new off-plan deals at close to 70-80%.
• The local market: Architect Farid Noufaily, who has designed homes for Emirati clients for more than a decade, said the quality an international broker most often misreads is “discretion”. He said one or two well-connected players can suffice, but dealings must happen owner to owner.
• The pitch: Abaza said the group will run educational rather than sales campaigns, explaining Dubai’s trajectory over the next 10 to 30 years. His blunter argument is tax: he said nowhere in the world beats the emirate for paying little or none. Oppenheim stayed noncommittal on a Dubai-set series.

Background:

The Oppenheim Group keeps a deliberately small footprint, with roughly 130 agents across three Southern California offices and a smaller operation in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Jason Oppenheim said he skipped Nashville, Austin and Miami during their booms. Abaza, an Egyptian-American, spent 22 years in the US and once worked as an agent at the firm.

Between the lines:

The brokerage’s case rests on reach rather than local depth: a global marketing platform aimed at overseas buyers who already know the name. That maps onto Dubai’s internationally oriented segment, not the Emirati one where Abaza concedes relationships are long established. Ghavidel’s test of whether an agent delivers buyers, not listings, is where the Netflix premium stops working.

What’s next

Watch whether Dubai Land Department registrations keep recovering from September levels, whether off-plan deal volumes stabilise, and whether the Oppenheim Group converts its Dh350mn listing book into closed sales or secures a Mercury Projects mandate.