Iran vows sustained retaliation as Houthi missiles hit Riyadh

The latest:

Iran’s military central command warned on Sunday that any fresh attack would draw sustained retaliation against US bases and interests across the region, and that Washington’s regional allies would be treated as parties to the conflict. The command said it had information an attack was being prepared, without elaborating. Hours earlier, Houthi missiles and drones struck the Saudi capital.

Details:

• Iran’s threat: Iran’s military central command said retaliation for any new strike would be sustained rather than a single response, and would extend to US bases and interests. It added that regional states hosting or backing American forces would be considered parties to the conflict, according to Reuters.
• Trump’s message: Speaking by phone with a Fox News reporter, Trump said Iran’s leadership should make a deal, rot economically, or be wiped out, the reporter said. Trump has repeatedly threatened major military escalation since the conflict began without carrying those threats out, Reuters reported.
• The diplomatic opening: With Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expected in New York this week for the United Nations General Assembly, Trump said he would be open to meeting him, according to the Fox reporter. No date, format or agenda for such a meeting was announced.
• Riyadh under fire: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group launched missile and drone strikes at the Saudi capital on Saturday. Reuters video showed a large plume of black smoke rising from the area of Riyadh’s main international airport after overnight explosions. Saudi Arabia did not comment on the incident.
• The coalition response: A Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis said it had foiled other attacks on the kingdom, without detailing where or when. The strikes followed sudden Houthi military gains earlier this month in Yemen’s reignited civil war, Reuters reported.
• The US alert: The State Department issued a security alert citing Houthi hostilities, saying there was potential for unforeseen escalation in the Middle East. It urged Americans to exercise heightened vigilance and to prepare for possible flight cancellations and airspace closures.
• The energy chokehold: Houthi gains along the Yemeni coast place the group’s forces on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, giving it the ability to blockade shipping between the Red Sea and Asia. With Iran already blocking most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf energy exports are almost entirely cut off from global markets.
• Iran’s own losses: A US blockade of Iranian ports is preventing Tehran from selling its oil, contributing to major problems in the Iranian economy, Reuters reported. The war that began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28 has cratered swathes of that economy and deepened a global energy crisis.
• The stalled truce: An interim ceasefire struck in June collapsed in July over disputes about its terms. Iran repeated on Sunday that it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the June agreement’s terms, as Tehran interprets them, are met.
• Tehran’s strategy: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Iran would have to keep fighting as well as negotiating, in order to push back its enemies and consolidate any gains through diplomacy.

Background:

The conflict opened with US and Israeli strikes on February 28. An interim ceasefire agreed in June broke down in July. Since then neither side has signalled readiness for concessions, while the fighting has spilled into Yemen and across the Gulf, Reuters reported.

Between the lines:

Riyadh now faces a dilemma Reuters describes as painful: keep striking the Houthis to halt their territorial advance, or pull back hoping to spare critical infrastructure from drone attacks. Iran’s declaration that US regional allies are parties to the conflict raises the cost of the first option. With Gulf cities under fire and both maritime chokepoints compromised, the states least involved in the February decision to strike are absorbing much of its cost.

What’s next

Watch whether Pezeshkian and Trump meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week, whether Saudi Arabia responds publicly to the Riyadh strikes, and any move on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.