The latest
The United States is strengthening its capacity to conduct a broader air campaign against Iran after notifying Israel that it plans to deploy dozens of additional refueling aircraft in the coming days. The move comes as President Donald Trump considers operations extending beyond the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian energy, nuclear and infrastructure targets.
Pickaxe Mountain is among the most difficult potential targets. Iran has built a tunnel network inside a granite mountain, with workspaces potentially covering 6,200 square yards at depths of 330 to 475 feet. Uncertainty over its ventilation shafts and internal passages could make an attack more complicated than the 2025 strike on Fordow.
The preparations coincide with an expanding cycle of attacks on critical infrastructure. Washington has bombed bridges and logistics sites in southern Iran, while Tehran has targeted US bases and power and water facilities across the Gulf. To the west, the Houthis have threatened Saudi airports, ports and oil infrastructure, placing the kingdom’s export route through Yanbu and Bab al-Mandeb under growing pressure.
Details
- Air buildup: About 60 US refueling aircraft are currently deployed at Ben Gurion and Ramon airports, with dozens more potentially on the way.
- Campaign objective: Trump is seeking to force Iran to reopen Hormuz and accept US nuclear demands, but has not made a final decision on escalation.
- Oil route: Saudi Arabia is moving about four million barrels a day through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
- Falling flows: Average oil transit through Hormuz has dropped to about 5.5 million barrels a day from 9.4 million the previous week.
- Price pressure: Brent crude approached $87 a barrel after rising 13% in one week.
Between the lines
Deploying more refueling aircraft does not confirm that a full-scale offensive has been ordered, but it creates the capacity to launch one quickly. Meanwhile, the threat to Bab al-Mandeb gives Iran and its allies leverage extending beyond the battlefield to the global economy.
What to watch
Attention will focus on Trump’s decision over Pickaxe and other Iranian facilities, as well as Israel’s response to the proposed aircraft deployment. Any Houthi attack on Yanbu or shipping in Bab al-Mandeb would signal a shift from the disruption of one strategic oil corridor to the simultaneous endangerment of two.
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