The latest:
The Iran war, not inflation alone, drove the Republican collapse in the midterms, Vice President JD Vance argued in an unusual social media post that landed across Washington this week. Trump responded that his deputy was largely right, while insisting he had no choice but to strike Iran and would do it again. Donald Trump Jr. reposted the message and endorsed it.
Details:
- The post: Vance wrote on X that the war was the reason Republicans lost, telling critics they were free to argue that losing the Senate for six years was worth it. He said an earlier recommendation to end the war had been sound advice.
- The polling: Vance said he spoke before the vote with a pollster he described as among the smartest people he knows in politics, who saw 2024 Trump voters planning to back Democrats. The top four answers on what would bring them back: ending the Iran war, cost of living, prioritizing America, and changing the relationship with Israel.
- Trump’s answer: Trump told reporters while touring the White House ballroom construction site that gas prices rose in the short term but the decision was unavoidable, because Iran cannot be allowed nuclear weapons. Asked if the war was worth it, he said there was no other option.
- Cleared in advance: According to Reuters, the White House was shown the piece before publication, and one person called it a departure from Trump’s position. A person familiar with the exchange said Vance shared the text with the president first and got a positive response.
- Military track: Trump was briefed last week by Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, on options for resuming operations, two sources said. US officials told Reuters renewed strikes are still under consideration despite the election loss.
- Intelligence view: An intelligence source and senior US officials said assessments in recent months concluded that resuming attacks would not materially shift Tehran’s negotiating position and would not topple the government.
- The warning: Sources familiar with the discussions said the probability of war is now very high because Trump has no political downside left after the midterms. One told Reuters: “He is planning to bomb Iran. Don’t believe what he says. We asked him to wait until after the elections.”
- Succession fight: Trump, who has not endorsed Vance as his successor, suggested he may not run at all, saying he does not know who will. Vance’s allies said he is in no rush and is unlikely to decide before next year.
- Republican pushback: Mark Short, former chief of staff to Mike Pence, questioned why Vance offered political analysis instead of policy on affordability, calling it a lose-lose posture. Former press secretary Ari Fleischer argued the problem was the ceasefire, saying the war should have ended six months ago with Hormuz open and Iran’s second- and third-tier leadership eliminated.
- Ohio losses: Republicans lost Vance’s former Senate seat, with appointed Senator Jon Husted defeated by former Senator Sherrod Brown. Vivek Ramaswamy, backed by Vance allies and aides, lost the governor’s race.
Background:
Vance endorsed Trump in 2023 in a Wall Street Journal essay arguing Trump would not drag the United States into foreign wars. He privately opposed the Iran campaign, then backed it publicly, traveled to Pakistan in April to meet Iranians, and recently reopened contacts to avert renewed fighting.
Between the lines:
The break is about 2028 as much as Iran. Vance is positioning as the candidate who warned against the war while Trump defends it, which is why Trump’s refusal to endorse him and his remark that Vance may not run matter more than the post itself. Meanwhile Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who drove the administration’s hardest line on Iran, has said nothing since the vote.
What’s next
Watch whether Trump acts on Cooper’s options, whether Rubio breaks his silence, and whether pressure builds on War Secretary Pete Hegseth, whom Trump described as a war supporter from the start and who faces congressional criticism.
