The latest:
Houthi negotiators told Saudi Arabia that $51 billion would be the price of a negotiated halt to the fighting, people briefed on the talks told The Wall Street Journal. The figure was presented as compensation for years of Saudi airstrikes and a prolonged blockade. Other numbers have been floated since, those people said, but the message held: exiting the conflict would cost tens of billions.
Details:
- The trigger: The outreach followed Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and the group’s seizure of territory overlooking the Bab al-Mandab strait, according to the report. Riyadh approached the group to learn what a negotiated cessation of hostilities would require.
- The political demand: Beyond money, the Houthis want Saudi Arabia to formally recognize them as the rulers of Yemen, the people briefed on the talks said. That would effectively mean accepting an Iranian-armed adversary as the governing authority on the kingdom’s southern border.
- The battlefield: Fighting intensified this summer, with Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and airports alongside an offensive that took more ground inside Yemen. The group is advancing toward Aden, seat of the internationally recognized government, closing to roughly 50 miles — its nearest approach since 2015.
- The deadliest strike: Repeated Houthi strikes inside Yemen hit areas that could have served as staging points or command centers for a Saudi-led ground assault, the Journal reported. One attack in Shabwa province killed at least 75 people and wounded more than 200, the deadliest since the civil war reignited.
- The military read: David Des Roches, a retired U.S. Army colonel who trained Gulf officers including Saudis, said the Houthis are using short-range ballistic missiles against targets such as Aden. Advertising that reach, he said, complicates any coalition effort to move ground forces into Yemen.
- Riyadh’s calculation: Saudi officials said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler under 90-year-old King Salman, does not want full negotiations without battlefield gains to use as leverage. He fears more troops would mean heavy casualties and domestic anger. Dozens have already died, unannounced by authorities.
- The precedent risk: Majed al-Madhaji, a Yemeni analyst and co-founder of the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, said the financial demand is likely the least of Riyadh’s concerns. The deeper problem, he said, is “establishing a precedent that lets the group escalate militarily whenever it wants concessions or more money.”
- Allies missing: The UAE, once Riyadh’s main partner in Yemen, withdrew fully from the anti-Houthi campaign last December after a dispute. Abu Dhabi backs forces seeking an independent southern state, undercutting the Saudi goal of Yemeni unity. Tensions peaked after Riyadh bombed what it called an arms shipment to Emirati allies.
- The substitutes: Saudi Arabia turned to a new Mecca pact with Turkey and Pakistan treating an attack on one as an attack on all, but Turkey’s parliament has not ratified it and Pakistan refused to join strikes inside Yemen. Egypt approved military support in October; President Sisi said any mission would be defensive only.
- The defense burden: Washington has withheld direct support against the Houthis since its weeks-long 2025 campaign. ACLED recorded 26 incidents in the kingdom in recent days alone. Des Roches said the kingdom must spread Patriot and other interceptors against Iran to the east, Iraqi Shiite militias to the north and the Houthis to the south.
Background:
Saudi Arabia intervened against the Houthis in Yemen’s civil war more than a decade ago. The group seized parts of Aden in 2015 before being pushed back by the Saudi-led coalition.
Between the lines:
Every lever Riyadh has tried is blunted. Airstrikes have continued without decisive results, the Emirati partnership collapsed, and the Mecca pact’s partners have each declined offensive roles. Des Roches argues the kingdom needs ground pressure it cannot supply itself, which is why Houthi missile reach toward Aden matters. That explains the crown prince’s reluctance to negotiate before securing leverage he does not hold.
What’s next
Watch whether Turkey’s parliament ratifies the Mecca pact, whether Houthi forces close the remaining distance to Aden, and whether Washington shifts from withholding direct support against the group.
