U.S. Officials Fear Iran Is in Advanced Stages of Attack Plots

The latest:

Iranian plots against American officials at home and abroad have moved from aspiration toward execution, according to intelligence described to The New York Times by U.S. officials. Several said the warnings are being treated more seriously than any since the war began on Feb. 28. Iranian officials, in turn, say they expect an imminent third round of U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Details:

• The intelligence: U.S. officials told The New York Times the material suggests Iran may seek to kill American ambassadors in the Middle East and officials on U.S. soil. The reporting points to Unit 840, an elite arm credited with kidnappings and assassinations abroad. The underlying plot details remain highly classified.
• The disclosure: Jay Clayton, the director of national intelligence, made the warning public on Friday in a letter. Before that, only the most senior lawmakers, the Gang of 8, had been briefed. Some officials told the newspaper they were puzzled by the release, knowing specific evidence could not be discussed.
• The trigger: U.S. officials and European allies said threat reporting has climbed in recent weeks following a suspected Iranian plot against R.A.F. Fairford in southern England, a base used by the U.S. military. A dozen B-1 bombers were withdrawn; Iranian officials said their return would signal an imminent attack.
• Trump’s posture: Trump said Saturday he would decide soon on renewed military action but said nothing publicly about the intelligence. Senior officials said privately he appears to be leaning toward another round of major strikes. He has said he would not attack before the midterm elections in 10 days.
• Target planning: Central Command plans detail an expanded bombing target list including energy infrastructure and other sites vital to Iran’s economy, according to an official with direct knowledge of the planning. Neither the White House team nor Pentagon leadership has briefed on the conflict in months.
• Tehran’s threats: A senior Iranian official wrote on social media that the country is preparing surprise attacks with zero red lines. Mahdi Mohammadi, adviser to parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Iran views the next stage as existential and asymmetrical rather than a classic war.
• Iranian confirmation: Two Iranian officials, one a Revolutionary Guards member, confirmed in Saturday interviews that the expanded target list includes U.S. diplomats and personnel. They defended it by citing dozens of Iranian officials and some family members killed by Israel and the United States, calling Americans fair game.
• Capability doubts: U.S. officials cautioned Iran’s intentions have repeatedly outrun its operational reach, noting past plots entrusted to hired criminals arrested before causing harm. Iranian officials frequently exaggerate covert capabilities internally, and officials said Tehran’s success rate has measurably deteriorated since the 1980s.
• Earlier precedent: The F.B.I. arrested a Pakistani nationalist on July 12, 2024, charging a murder-for-hire plot directed by the Revolutionary Guard Corps against Trump. Biden aides tracked a separate credible Iranian threat and sent countersnipers to the Butler, Pa., rally the next day.

Background:

Iranian threats against Trump and his advisers intensified after his January 2020 order to kill Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, head of Iran’s Quds force. Tehran counts its strikes on U.S. bases and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Feb. 28 among its most effective moves.

Between the lines:

Diplomats and outside experts told the newspaper this is how states stumble into full-scale war. With Iranian plots reportedly nearing execution and Central Command’s target list expanded, a single shooting aimed at an American, or a stray blast near a leadership bunker, could be read as the opening of a third round. The 2024 Butler case shows how fast attribution can go wrong.

What’s next

Trump has signaled a decision on renewed strikes after the U.S. midterm elections in 10 days. Israel votes Tuesday, with Netanyahu’s defeat still leaving him room for a final strike. Watch whether B-1 bombers return to R.A.F. Fairford.