Satellite images point to Saudi plant built for bigger missiles

The latest:

A new building with casting pits at Saudi Arabia’s al-Duwadimi missile complex, roughly 200 km west of Riyadh, is at least twice the size of the structure believed to hold the plant’s existing pits, two Foreign Policy Research Institute researchers told Reuters after reviewing commercial satellite imagery. They assessed the expansion is likely intended for missiles with heavier payloads or longer reach.

Details:

• The imagery: Satellite company Planet Labs photographed al-Duwadimi between April 2025 and September 2026, according to Reuters. Researchers Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman identified a new structure housing casting pits — wells where fuel ingredients are poured into motor casings and left to harden — plus a second building they said could store propellant ingredients or finished components.
• The assessment: The two researchers wrote that the imagery suggests Saudi Arabia is expanding infrastructure at the production complex, likely to build larger missiles capable of delivering bigger payloads or reaching longer ranges. FPRI, based in Philadelphia, describes itself as a non-partisan research organization.
• The Chinese link: Lair, Duitsman and experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies and CNA told Reuters the composition of the Saudi missile force suggests al-Duwadimi relies on Chinese technology, and the plant resembles Chinese facilities. Lair assessed the kingdom may now be producing the solid-fuel DF-15, with the expansion likely aimed at the longer-range DF-21.
• The Yemen find: The FPRI team said it recently identified, from social media videos and photographs, what it assessed was wreckage in Yemen of a Saudi-fired Chinese-designed DF-15 missile.
• Independent reviews: Defense intelligence company Janes reviewed the analysis and said the buildings “may suggest an effort to expand production capability or support the development of longer-range missiles.” CNA analyst Decker Eveleth, who has tracked the construction with his own imagery, concurred with the FPRI reading.
• The military logic: IISS research fellow Sascha Bruchmann said longer-range missiles would let Riyadh strike Iran without exposing its US-supplied F-15 jets to Iranian air defenses. He argued Iran holds a lead because its missiles and drones can hit Saudi targets at will. Militaries favor solid-fuel systems because they store longer and launch faster.
• The regional pattern: Eveleth told Reuters the same build-out is being replicated across the Middle East, naming the United Arab Emirates and Turkey as examples of states expanding offensive and defensive arsenals.
• The Washington problem: The expansion could stiffen bipartisan congressional opposition to a US-Saudi agreement under which Washington would help Riyadh establish uranium enrichment for power generation. Opponents say the deal lacks safeguards against a covert weapons program; the kingdom has denied any such plan.
• The timeline: FPRI said ground-clearing and digging for the suspected storage building began in April 2025, with work on the casting-pit building starting later that month or in early May. A December 2025 image showed two deep pits inside a roofless structure; by September 2026 the roof was still partly missing, flanked by blast-diverting walls.
• No comment: The Saudi embassy and Information Ministry did not respond to Reuters requests for comment, nor did the Chinese embassy and defense ministry or the White House. The CIA declined to comment.

Background:

A 1991 declassified CIA estimate said Saudi Arabia secretly acquired about 40 liquid-fuel DF-3 ballistic missiles from China in 1987. Two were displayed publicly for the first time at an April 2014 military parade. Riyadh is believed to have turned to Beijing because Washington has long restricted exports of longer-range missile systems.

Between the lines:

The blast-diverting walls are the tell: researchers said they resemble those at US and Iranian missile plants, which is why they read the structure as a casting hall rather than storage. That reading carries weight beyond Yemen — an indigenous solid-fuel line reduces Saudi dependence on American export decisions, and arrives while Congress weighs enrichment safeguards. Eveleth’s point about the UAE and Turkey frames it as a regional build-out.

What’s next

FPRI said finishing the roofs would be quick, but installing casting equipment may take several months, putting possible production start as early as the end of the year. Watch congressional handling of the US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement.