The latest:
Israeli security experts warn that renewed war with Iran has become a question of timing rather than likelihood, with Tehran and Washington still trading threats and no settlement in place. Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies told JTA that without a diplomatic settlement the chances of escalation are extremely high, as Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Details:
- The core warning: Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch in Israeli military intelligence’s research division, said Trump cannot declare victory now but also cannot walk away without doing something, while Iran cannot accept a continuing naval blockade and will keep attacking oil tankers.
- The secret visit: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth arrived in Israel Monday unannounced and met Netanyahu at Ovda air base, Axios reported. Defense Minister Israel Katz and national security advisers attended. The Pentagon and Israel’s embassy in Washington declined to comment; the Prime Minister’s Office issued no immediate response.
- Unusual logistics: Yedioth Ahronoth reported Netanyahu traveled to Ovda by private plane rather than helicopter, his motorcade going first to Ben Gurion airport. The meeting with the General Staff ran unusually long and caused him to skip a Beitar Jerusalem match he had planned to attend.
- What Hegseth said: Hegseth referred to his Middle East trip on X, saying he met American troops in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. He did not publicly confirm being in Israel or meeting Netanyahu. Ovda hosts US refueling aircraft and fighter jets.
- The planning: The New York Times reported administration officials discussed a short, intense campaign of roughly three days targeting Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, possibly alongside strikes on energy infrastructure and Revolutionary Guard headquarters. The Atlantic reported the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options executable before the midterms.
- The denial: Axios reported Netanyahu and Trump discussed a joint operation several times, with Netanyahu citing Israeli intelligence that Iran is moving to reactivate its nuclear program. The White House denied the report and said Trump made clear the United States will not attack Iran before the midterms.
- The economics: Oil has risen 46% to $104 a barrel since the February 28 attacks, pushing gasoline up 46% to $4.36 a gallon. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. Falling energy prices are among Trump’s stated goals, which another campaign could push further out of reach.
- The polling: A Pew Research Center survey last week found 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of US military action against Iran. An INSS poll last month showed Israelis split on a preemptive strike, with opponents slightly outnumbering supporters.
- The Houthi factor: Avner Vilan, a former senior Israeli security official, said the Houthis have seized significant Red Sea coastline and disrupted Bab al-Mandab shipping. He assessed their gains cut both ways: a harder Yemen campaign lowers US appetite for another front, while major Houthi escalation could drag Washington in.
- Military readiness: After an assessment by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, the Israeli army confined all units to base starting Thursday, reinforced commanders at headquarters and bolstered forces in the West Bank. The army said it has no confirmed indication of an imminent Iranian attack.
Background:
Tehran and Washington each claim victory in the two-month war that halted in April. Citrinowicz assessed Iran remains in power, retains the capacity to rebuild its nuclear and ballistic losses, and still exercises some control over the strait, making victory hard to demonstrate.
Between the lines:
Vilan argued another round of strikes faces an unanswered question: if earlier strikes failed to force a nuclear deal, it is unclear what additional force changes Iran’s position, and less clear how it topples the regime within two years. Morsiano of Mitvim assessed escalation becomes likelier after the midterms, when a Trump loss of Congress could shift his focus to a foreign-policy legacy.
What’s next
Israel votes October 27; US midterms follow November 3. A third American carrier is expected in the region. Zamir discussed with General Dan Caine the possibility of large-scale fighting within three weeks, which he indicated could delay Israel’s election.
