The latest:
Pakistan has told Iran it may be obliged to defend Saudi Arabia if Riyadh invokes their mutual defense pact, according to people briefed on the talks cited by the Financial Times. Field Marshal Asim Munir repeatedly asked Iranian leaders to help halt Houthi strikes on the kingdom’s energy infrastructure, pointing to Islamabad’s commitments without issuing explicit threats.
Details:
- The talks: Munir, described as Pakistan’s de facto leader, visited Tehran last month to meet President Masoud Pezeshkian and political leaders, and held several phone calls with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the most recent on Thursday, according to Iran’s IRNA news agency.
- The Pakistani reading: A Pakistani official briefed on the discussions said Iran’s position is that the conflict is between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, adding that “the escalation also appears to serve Iran’s policy in the region.” Pakistan’s military did not respond to a request for comment.
- The attacks: Saudi Arabia has faced repeated missile and drone attacks in recent weeks from Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq, striking cities, disrupting critical energy infrastructure and helping push oil prices to their highest level since mid-May.
- Tehran’s line: Iranian officials insist the Houthis act independently. The group is among the strongest members of Iran’s axis of resistance but is not ideologically aligned with the Iranian system the way other Tehran-backed armed groups are, and has primarily pursued its own domestic interests.
- The pact: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia widened their alliance last month into a broader arrangement including Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan compared it to NATO’s Article 5, while stressing any military assistance must be requested by the targeted state and ratified by Turkey’s parliament.
- No request yet: Riyadh has not publicly sought outside support from Pakistan or Turkey as Houthi attacks intensify, and the three states insist the agreement is defensive. Both Islamabad and Ankara maintain long-standing political and trade ties with Iran.
- The bind: One person familiar with the talks said Pakistan, which deployed fighter jets and pilots to an eastern Saudi airbase in April, is in a difficult position. Islamabad declined to join the Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen in 2015, but analysts said treaty obligations and acute financial fragility make refusal harder now.
- Official wording: A Pakistani foreign ministry spokesperson said Islamabad is committed in letter and spirit to implementing its defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, but said questions of when, how, where and what force would be used require operational discretion at this stage.
- Mecca incident: Islamabad reacted angrily this week to what Saudi authorities described as an attempted drone attack on Mecca. Pakistani officials have repeatedly called the sanctity of the holy sites a red line, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack and urged maximum restraint.
- Turkey and the Houthis: Fidan said Ankara is acting in the spirit of the Mecca alliance after urging the Houthis to halt their aggression, and Turkey’s defense ministry condemned the attacks on Thursday. The Houthis broke a 2022 truce in July, declaring a blockade of Saudi ports and demanding oil revenues and navigation rights.
Background:
Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition against the Houthis in a years-long war before the 2022 truce. Riyadh and the Yemeni government it backs are still trying to push the rebels off Red Sea territory, recently taking the city of Mokha.
Between the lines:
Omar Karim of the University of Birmingham assessed that any Pakistani assistance would follow a Saudi decision on whether to fight a full-scale war in Yemen rather than a limited campaign, and said all indications suggest Riyadh has not decided. He judged that if Riyadh asks, Pakistan could join an air campaign against drones or strike launch sites inside Yemen.
What’s next
A diplomat said Saudi outreach across the region has yielded little and neither side wants to discuss negotiations now, adding that everyone is waiting to see what happens over the next two weeks.
