The latest:
Iran has exported no oil from its own ports since the American naval blockade resumed on 13 July, while Arab producers have pushed roughly 5 million barrels a day back through the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported. The paper wrote that the confrontation has turned uneven, and that time in the Hormuz fight is now working against Tehran rather than Washington.
Details:
- The volumes: Tanker Trackers estimated that an average of about 5 million barrels a day of crude left through Hormuz over the past four weeks with almost no Iranian cargoes, alongside some 2.5 million barrels a day shipped from Gulf of Oman ports including Fujairah. Together that is more than 40% of pre-war regional flows.
- Who recovered: Vessel tracking showed every Gulf producer except Iran raised exports, according to the Journal, with Qatar and Kuwait restoring shipments to roughly 70% of pre-war levels despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on shipping.
- The blockade asymmetry: Samir Madani, co-founder of maritime data firm Tanker Trackers, said Iran’s blockade is “more penetrable” than the American one, adding that Tehran never managed to halt tanker traffic entirely. No oil has left Iranian ports since 13 July.
- The escort operation: US Central Command announced on 28 August that American forces had protected about 1,500 ships carrying close to 750 million barrels of oil over several months, a scale of naval cover that helped Arab exporters resume loading under fire.
- Both bets failed: Tehran expected that choking part of world oil supply would create an economic crisis forcing President Donald Trump to end the war on Iranian terms. Crude rose but stayed under $100. Vali Nasr, professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, said both sides’ assumptions proved wrong and neither has a clear exit.
- Pressure on Tehran: The toman is losing value, inflation is climbing and gasoline shortages are widening, the Journal reported. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country’s trade has fallen by between 25% and 35%.
- Traffic still broken: Ship Finder data showed vessels inside the Gulf fell more than 14% in a week, from 4,204 on 28 August to 3,598 on 3 September. Only two very large crude carriers crossed the strait since the start of that week, against roughly 125 large commercial ships daily before the war.
- Going dark: Crude is moving covertly through Hormuz for transfer to tankers in the Gulf of Oman, people familiar with the shipments said, with volumes exceeding market estimates of 4 million barrels a day. About 150 vessels now sit off Oman’s coast, against roughly 40 in January, per EU Sentinel 1 satellite data.
- The price effect: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that 9 million barrels a day crossed the strait over the previous seven days, about half pre-war levels. Traders and analysts credit those risky cargoes for keeping Brent between $80 and $90 for most of August, against forecasts near $150.
- ADNOC and the costs: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said it remains determined to deliver energy safely despite repeated targeting of its ships, staff and facilities, and satellite imagery showed loading continuing at Das Island. LNG and fertiliser cargoes remain stuck in Gulf waters, pressuring Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait.
Background:
Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels a day passed through Hormuz, about a fifth of global oil supply, alongside a comparable share of liquefied natural gas. Both Washington and Tehran entered the confrontation believing sustained pressure at the strait would exhaust the other side first.
Between the lines:
The Journal’s assessment is that Arab producers’ accelerated build-out of ports, pipelines and overland routes could weaken Tehran’s strategic card over the long term. The logic is visible in the numbers already reported: 2.5 million barrels a day now leave from Gulf of Oman terminals bypassing the chokepoint, Qatar and Kuwait have clawed back 70% of pre-war exports, and Brent never approached the $150 traders feared. A card that no longer moves the price buys less at any negotiating table.
What’s next
Rystad Energy expects flows to stay severely depressed through November as understandings between Washington and Tehran falter. Watch whether Iranian ports resume any loading, and whether Brent breaks out of its $80-90 band.
