The latest:
American intelligence concluded that Vladimir Putin sees the United States as weakened by its war with Iran, and that Moscow may exploit that opening against US interests and allies in Europe, the Washington Post reported. That assessment preceded CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s secret trip to Moscow this week, the first known visit by an agency chief since late 2021.
Details:
- The intelligence: Two people familiar with the matter told the Washington Post that Russia believes Washington’s current position gives it room to escalate actions against American interests and European allies. The same reporting said the assessment focused less on Putin feeling cornered in Ukraine than on Moscow’s reading of American inability to intervene.
- The warning delivered: One source told the Washington Post that Ratcliffe cautioned Moscow against escalating in Ukraine, warning it would trigger retaliation and push Trump toward backing Volodymyr Zelensky. Two European officials, briefed afterward, said Ratcliffe restated that Washington remains bound by NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense clause.
- The Iran cost: The Washington Post linked the Kremlin’s assessment to reports of reduced readiness and ammunition shortages after the prolonged campaign against Tehran, which began exactly six months ago. US weapons stockpiles have been heavily drawn down, unsettling Asian allies and raising questions about deterring a potential conflict with China.
- A second account: The New York Times reported a different framing, citing current and former officials: Ratcliffe went to deliver a bleak private assessment of Russia’s war and urge Moscow to negotiate before its military and economic position worsens. In that account he issued no threats of consequences.
- Who he met: The Washington Post identified Ratcliffe’s counterpart as SVR chief Sergei Naryshkin, who said there was nothing unusual about the talks. The New York Times reported the message went to Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB, in what officials described as the two men’s first face-to-face meeting.
- Kept from the White House: The Wall Street Journal reported the trip was sensitive enough that some senior White House officials were not told in advance. US officials said Trump dispatched Ratcliffe personally and deliberately withheld notice from some advisers and senior administration figures.
- The tradecraft: Ratcliffe flew into Moscow aboard an unmarked US military C-17 transport from Latvia, according to reporting on the trip. The secrecy drew wide attention in the West and prompted European officials to request information about what was discussed.
- Ratcliffe’s public line: Last month the director spoke bluntly about Russian losses and Moscow’s failure to advance, saying the average life expectancy of a Russian soldier on the front line was under 35 minutes. He said Russia had gained roughly 1% of Ukraine’s territory in his 18 months in office, crediting Ukrainian “mastery” of drone technology.
- Trump’s response: Trump told reporters he was not concerned that Putin would order an attack on US allies, saying Putin will not attack NATO territory. He declined to answer when asked what Ratcliffe’s visit was for.
- Parallel channels: Officials told the New York Times the Ratcliffe-Bortnikov line runs alongside separate channels opened by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with other senior Putin advisers. Ukrainians view both men as close to Moscow and see Ratcliffe, known for hardline positions, as a more neutral interlocutor.
Background:
The last known CIA director’s trip to Moscow was in November 2021, when William Burns warned the Kremlin against a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That effort failed, and the war began months later and continues today.
Between the lines:
The two reported versions of the trip are not identical: one has Ratcliffe warning against escalation, the other has him pressing for a deal without threats. Both rest on the same underlying judgment — that Moscow is now calculating against a United States it reads as overstretched. European diplomats see a peace window this winter, given the stalled Russian push in Donbas and Ukraine’s continued drone attrition.
What’s next
Watch whether Russia escalates strikes on Ukraine, whether the Ratcliffe-Bortnikov channel produces a second meeting, and whether Washington adds a national security official to the group pressing Moscow, as European officials have urged.
