WSJ: Why Trump Turned on Oman?

The latest:

Threatening to bomb a Gulf partner, President Trump said Oman may be standing in the way of a deal with Iran, though he offered no specifics about what Omani officials had done. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, he said the country had not behaved well and would be handled easily. The Wall Street Journal reported the threat came as a nuclear agreement proved elusive.

Details:

• The threat: Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that Oman had not behaved well and that Washington would handle it easily, just as it does others, according to the Journal. He did not identify what Omani officials had done to draw his anger.
• The deadline: Trump set a 60-day deadline in June to end the war with Iran and force Tehran to abandon its nuclear program. That deadline expired Monday with neither side giving ground, leaving no clear path to ending the conflict, the Journal reported.
• The internal split: Some senior aides privately accuse Oman of being a duplicitous actor that largely sides with Iran rather than seeking the best available deal, U.S. officials said. Others argue Oman’s ties to Tehran help mediation, and say Trump is scapegoating Muscat for his own failure to close a nuclear agreement.
• The strait: Oman borders the Strait of Hormuz to the south and is negotiating with Iran to allow more commercial traffic through it. U.S. officials said those talks were progressing and could ease pressure on global energy markets and domestic gasoline prices. A fifth of the world’s oil and energy passed through the waterway before the war.
• The concern: U.S. officials said an Iran-Oman arrangement could entrench Tehran’s control over the strait. Trump prefers a deal that fully reopens the passage, and has told aides he would consider Iran’s nuclear path blocked and the war won if Tehran agreed to open it, according to earlier Journal reporting.
• The mediators: Washington has leaned on Qatar and Pakistan to broker an end to the war while pushing Oman, the original mediator, aside, the Journal reported. Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi had helped mediate U.S.-Iran talks before the fighting began.
• Omani criticism: Al-Busaidi repeatedly criticized the decision to launch the war and appeared on CBS News to try to head off the first wave of attacks. In a March social-media post he wrote that whatever one’s view of Iran, “this war is not of their making.”
• The tolling dispute: The administration earlier threatened sanctions and strikes on Oman after intelligence assessments concluded it planned to impose tolls with Iran on vessels crossing the strait. Oman repeatedly denied those assessments. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called Iranian tolling a red line and a dangerous precedent for other waterways.
• Other allies: Trump on Sunday ordered a cut to a joint U.S.-South Korea military drill after Seoul declined to help reopen the strait, recounting that President Lee Jae Myung said no thanks while 39,000 American troops guard the country. He has also complained the U.K. and Spain have not done enough against Iran.
• Outside assessment: Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations assessed that Iran is pressuring Oman into the joint plan to give it the patina of a legitimate cross-strait project, and judged that Trump’s threats embolden Tehran, which senses weakness. The strait, he said, remains mostly closed rather than open.

Background:

Oman was the initial channel for U.S.-Iran nuclear diplomacy before the war Trump launched alongside Israel. Relations have deteriorated in recent months over Muscat’s public opposition to the strikes and over the disputed tolling plan for the Strait of Hormuz.

Between the lines:

Two readings inside the administration cannot both be true: either Oman’s Iran ties are the asset that makes mediation possible, or they are the flaw that tilts any deal toward Tehran. The expired 60-day deadline and the sidelining of Muscat in favor of Qatar and Pakistan suggest the second reading is winning, even as U.S. officials describe the Oman-Iran traffic talks as progressing.

What’s next

Watch whether the Iran-Oman traffic arrangement is finalized and on what terms, whether Washington moves from threats to sanctions or strikes, and whether Qatar and Pakistan produce any opening after the expired deadline.