The latest
Saudi Arabia now needs an alternative to the route that rescued its exports after Hormuz was disrupted. The East-West pipeline moved crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea, but Houthi threats against Bab el-Mandeb have placed more than 5 million barrels a day at renewed risk.
Riyadh can redirect cargoes north through the Suez Canal, but fully loaded supertankers carrying 2 million barrels cannot pass through it. Egypt’s Sumed pipeline can move crude from Ain Sukhna to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, but its capacity is about 2.5 million barrels a day—roughly half the current flow from Yanbu.
The workaround would require smaller tankers to shuttle crude between Yanbu and Sumed, or supertankers to unload part of their cargo before crossing Suez and reload it in the Mediterranean. Israel’s Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline is a theoretical option offering another 1.2 million barrels a day, but it would require politically sensitive arrangements that Saudi Arabia has not acknowledged considering.
Details
- Northern route: Cargoes could exit through Suez into the Mediterranean instead of sailing south toward Bab el-Mandeb.
- Size restrictions: The canal can accommodate medium-sized tankers, while fully loaded supertankers must first reduce their cargo.
- Sumed capacity: The Egyptian pipeline can transport about 2.5 million barrels a day between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.
- Additional option: The Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline could provide about 1.2 million barrels a day of capacity, but remains politically complicated.
- Longer voyages: A journey from Saudi Arabia to Japan could take an additional 25 days, with a similar increase on the return leg.
- Exposed markets: China, India, Japan and South Korea would be most affected by disruption to exports from Yanbu.
Between the lines
Engineering and logistics can keep much of Saudi Arabia’s oil on the market, but they cannot overcome geography entirely. Every additional detour requires more ships, storage and agreements, multiplying the risks of delays, mistakes and higher costs.
What to watch
The scale of the alternative plan will depend on whether Houthi attacks continue and tankers can safely cross Bab el-Mandeb. A prolonged blockade would force Riyadh to rely heavily on Sumed and restructure delivery contracts, but no workaround can fully replace reopening Hormuz.
