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Trump keeps announcing Iran deals. Tehran keeps saying not so fast.

Nicole Jeffrey

1- Trump says Iran has agreed to open-ended, high-level nuclear inspections, but Tehran says there are no current plans to let inspectors into key sites bombed by the U.S.
2- Washington is presenting preferred outcomes as near-settled concessions, while Iran is trying to stop those claims from becoming the public version of the deal.
3- The dispute exposes the fragility of the talks: both sides are negotiating an agreement and fighting over its narrative at the same time.

 

The latest

Donald Trump is trying to sell the Iran talks as a string of U.S. wins.

Iran is pushing back almost as quickly.

According to The New York Times, Trump said Tehran had agreed to the “highest level” of nuclear inspections far into the future, even describing them as lasting “Infinity.” But the claim blurred a key point: as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Iran is already required to allow international inspections.

The bigger issue is what kind of access Tehran is actually prepared to grant.

Iranian officials say there are no current plans to let inspectors into Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo, the three major nuclear sites the U.S. bombed last year and where much of Iran’s enriched uranium is stored.

Details

• Trump’s pattern is becoming clear: he states the outcome he wants as if it has already been negotiated, then tries to force Iran to treat it as a settled fact.

• The old rule in Iran diplomacy was that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. In this round, that rule is being replaced by official, partial announcements, mostly from the U.S. side.

• Iran appears to have adjusted. It is denying U.S. claims quickly and publicly to avoid being boxed in before the final text is settled.

• Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution told The New York Times that Washington and Tehran are fighting in public to shape the narrative and advance their preferred outcomes.

• Inspections were discussed during the Switzerland talks, according to officials familiar with the negotiations.

• The idea under review would give the International Atomic Energy Agency broader power to inspect suspect sites on short notice.

• Iranian negotiators appeared open to the concept, the report said, but did not want to commit to dates or details before other issues were settled.

• Those issues include the timing of access to billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.

• Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow IAEA inspectors into the sites, calling it a first step toward preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei pushed back, saying there were no plans for inspectors to enter Isfahan, Natanz or Fordo.

• Trump then raised the stakes, saying there would be no accord without inspections.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio used more careful language. He said Washington knows what Iran agreed to do, and that Tehran will either carry it out or not.

• The same gap appeared over frozen assets. Vance said any released Iranian funds would be overseen by U.S. and Qatari officials and used to buy American farm products.

• Iran denied that the 14-point memorandum requires it to buy U.S. agricultural goods or gives non-Iranian officials control over how the money is spent.

• Iran’s central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said Tehran has “no obligation” to buy American farm products under the signed memorandum.

• His wording left some room for a possible verbal understanding, but not a written obligation.

• Baghaei did not rule out buying U.S. goods. He said Iran would decide how to use the released funds based on what serves the country’s needs.

• Even smaller details are being contested. Vance said talks continued past 1 a.m. despite Iranian threats to walk out.

• Baghaei said Iranian negotiators refused to meet the Americans directly after Trump threatened to resume bombing if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and instead exchanged messages through mediators.

What to watch

The danger is not only the gap between the two sides.

It is the way that gap is being managed in public.

Trump wants fast, visible wins: tougher inspections, controlled Iranian funds, purchases from U.S. farmers and an open Strait of Hormuz.

Iran wants access to its money and relief from military pressure without looking as though it accepted U.S. terms under threat.

That makes every public statement a small negotiating crisis.

If Washington keeps announcing preferences as agreements, and Tehran keeps denying them in real time, the talks may not collapse over one nuclear clause.

They may collapse over the fight to define what has been agreed at all.

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