‘Trust the people who . . . have the most to lose’ from a nuclear Iran, he says—but not the Israelis.
Elliot Kaufman
June 25, 2026 2:43 pm EDT
JD Vance has a funny way of selling the Iran deal. After assuring us that Iran’s new leaders have “transformed” and want to “turn over a new leaf,” and promising that the regime won’t get “anything” before making nuclear concessions—the massive, upfront sanctions relief doesn’t count or is really a “benefit to the American people,” he explains when challenged—the vice president then appeals to Iran’s neighbors.
The fullest version of this argument came last week: “Trust the people who know the Iranians the best and have the most to lose,” Mr. Vance said. But not the Israelis, he made clear. Never mind that they have the strongest interest of all in stopping Iran’s nuclear program.
Perhaps because the memorandum of understanding uncomfortably pushed off the nuclear matters to be negotiated later, Mr. Vance has dismissed criticism of the deal as focused on Israeli interests. “Often the arguments are: ‘Israel doesn’t think it’s good, therefore it’s bad,’” he said. The imputation is demagogic, as if U.S. interests, and the many hundreds of Americans killed by Iran, aren’t reason enough to oppose enriching the terrorist regime.
No, the people the vice president says to listen to are Gulf Arabs. His point is that some Gulf states privately opposed Barack Obama’s 2015 Iran deal but support this one. “They’re saying this is an amazingly transformative thing for the region,” Mr. Vance said. By his lights, their interests should guide our thinking.
In some ways, that’s convenient. The Gulf states are always hedging with Iran, by virtue of geography. Several opposed the war from the start and denied the U.S. use of local airspace and U.S. military bases. Even the supportive United Arab Emirates in time came to believe President Trump wasn’t willing to take the risks to win the war and now settles for quiet.
Mr. Vance and his fellow U.S. negotiators have shifted the missile issue to “regional discussions,” where all know that nothing will be achieved. Our Gulf allies may even be pushed—or follow Qatar—into a regional security pact with Tehran. China could well mediate the reconciliation, advancing the process that was thought to have been derailed by Iran’s war on its neighbors.
The Gulf states want their oil exports out and their energy infrastructure safe, and they are glad for the conflict to end. But that doesn’t mean they think this is a strong deal. The collapse of the U.S. position on Iran’s missile program—left out of the memorandum of understanding entirely—has unsettled the Gulf Arabs, and rightly so.
It doesn’t help that Messrs. Trump and Vance have publicly adopted the regime’s position on its missiles. “Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but they can’t have them?” Mr. Trump said of the Iranians at the G-7 summit last week. “Missiles aren’t the problem. Missiles—they hurt a little location, but they don’t blow up the planet.” Little locations like Saudi and Emirati refineries and oil fields.
Mr. Vance added, “You can’t tell the country, whether Israel or Iran, they’re not allowed to have any self-defense.” Set aside that Iran used its missiles to attack its peaceable neighbors; the U.S. went to war to stop Iran from building enough missiles to shield its illegal and aggressive nuclear program.
That’s why the Trump administration had previously sought restrictions on Iran’s missile program. These could include caps on the number and type of missiles, limiting their range and also payload to bar nuclear-capable missiles. Are those also this regime’s right?
Iran isn’t Israel or even Saudi Arabia—a difference that U.S. policy should have no trouble reflecting. Yet the dynamics of a weak nuclear deal with Iran almost inevitably bring U.S. leaders to bash Israel while rushing to the defense of imagined Iranian rights and prerogatives. That does our Gulf allies no favors, if Mr. Vance is still listening.
Mr. Kaufman is a member of the Journal’s editorial board and a co-author of “In the War Room: The Inside Story of Israel’s Fight Against Hamas and the Iranian Axis,” forthcoming in September.