The latest
The U.S.-Iran deal may calm the Strait of Hormuz, but it does not erase the deeper shift the crisis forced on global oil markets.
Energy analysts and shipping executives say the past several months have redrawn trade flows. The issue is no longer only whether a key waterway reopens. It is whether major buyers still trust the Gulf as their main source of supply.
President Donald Trump said Monday that a memorandum of understanding with Iran had been finalized, sending oil prices down by about 5%. But experts cited by the Associated Press said it could take months for Middle East shipping and production to return to pre-war levels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects old trade patterns to recover fully only by late 2026 or early 2027.
Details
• During the Hormuz crisis, buyers in Asia and Europe turned to alternative routes and signed longer-term deals with producers outside the Gulf.
• The BBC reported that the strait handled about 26 crude tankers a day before the war. That level is not expected to return immediately.
• BIMCO data showed crude tanker exports from the Americas reaching a record 14.5 million barrels per day in May.
• BIMCO described the shift as structural. It had been building for years, but the Hormuz crisis accelerated it.
• Reuters reported that U.S. crude and fuel exports rose to about 10.5 million barrels per day in May, making the country the world’s top exporter for a third straight month.
• South America played a central role in the surge. Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela shipped about 145 million additional barrels in 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
• The EIA expects Brazil’s production to reach 4 million barrels per day in 2026.
• Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation is also expected to lift output to about 810,000 barrels per day.
A new energy geography
The crisis is no longer just a temporary stress test for supply chains.
Asia Times reported that the Americas could produce about 30 million barrels of oil per day later in 2026. That would put the region close to OPEC’s pre-war production levels.
Before the conflict, the International Energy Agency had projected that nearly all global demand growth in 2026 could be met by supply from the Americas alone.
Frontline CEO Lars Barstad told CNBC that shipping through the strait could resume quickly if the deal holds. But he said traffic is unlikely to return soon to pre-war levels of 130 to 140 vessel crossings a day.
For buyers that spent months reducing their exposure to the Gulf, the incentive to reverse course may no longer be strong.
What to watch
The real test is not just whether Hormuz reopens. It is whether major buyers return to the Gulf on the same terms as before, or keep leaning on their new contracts in the Americas.
For now, the crisis appears to have changed more than prices. It has changed the way oil buyers think about risk, supply and trust.
