The latest
Washington is facing a harder question in its ongoing war with Iran: has Trump’s military flexibility given Tehran more room to strike?
In recent weeks, Iran has shifted part of the pressure onto Gulf arenas allied with Washington, including Kuwait and Bahrain, without triggering a broad U.S. military response. According to U.S. reports, Trump does not want to return to a wider war unless American troops are killed.
That threshold has made U.S. deterrence less clear. It gives Washington room to avoid sliding into a full-scale confrontation, but it also gives Tehran space to test the limits of the American response.
For U.S. allies, the cost is more immediate. Some Gulf states now see the policy as turning their territory into a pressure zone between Washington and Tehran, without enough guarantees for their security or sovereignty.
The pressure on Trump is no longer external only. In Washington, a limited Republican revolt has begun pushing war powers back toward Congress, months into the conflict.
Details
• Testing the U.S. red line: Reports say Trump told aides he would not return to full-scale war unless U.S. troops were killed. That threshold has allowed Tehran, according to assessments, to widen missile and drone attacks on Gulf targets without expecting a major U.S. response.
• Attacks move to allies: Strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain have raised the cost of the war for Washington’s partners, not just U.S. forces. The administration now faces a difficult trade-off: a broad response could ignite the war, while restraint could encourage Iran to keep applying pressure.
• Gulf unease grows: Some Gulf states are increasingly concerned about a U.S. policy that avoids full-scale war but does not prevent attacks on allied territory. For them, the issue is no longer only the scale of the U.S. response. It is that their security and sovereignty have become part of the room for maneuver between Washington and Tehran.
• Congress pushes back: Four Republican lawmakers voted with Democrats to restrict Trump’s war authority. Their argument is that the conflict has exceeded the administration’s own timeline, and that any continuation of military operations should return to Congress after 60 days.
• Pressure on mediators: The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington issued direct threats to Oman, including possible sanctions or military strikes, to halt facilities it allegedly provides to Tehran. That pressure puts Gulf mediation efforts, especially by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, under serious strain after the latest draft agreement faltered.
• A longer naval blockade: Trump has acknowledged that the naval blockade could last through the summer. Iran is facing major trade losses, while fears are rising over new pressure on energy markets if sea lanes remain restricted or transit through Hormuz stays limited.
What to watch
The key signal is no longer in Washington alone. Gulf capitals also matter. If attacks continue without a clearer U.S. response, Gulf unease could push the Trump administration to adjust its rules of engagement or offer stronger security guarantees.
Inside the U.S., Congress remains a critical pressure point. If Republican dissent grows, the administration may be forced to narrow its objectives or soften its terms. If most Republicans stay behind Trump, Washington could remain locked in a long naval war of attrition, with the risk that one wrong strike in the Gulf turns the confrontation into a wider war.
