Economists acknowledge that artificial intelligence has not yet caused widespread disruption in the labor market, but they are increasingly convinced that its impact is coming—and could arrive quickly—amid concerns that governments are not ready to respond. This shift follows years of skepticism, when economists largely attributed employment fluctuations to traditional economic factors rather than AI.
Details
Recent estimates suggest that the baseline scenario still points to gradual economic growth as AI technologies improve, without major deviation from historical patterns. However, if technological progress accelerates, a different scenario could emerge, featuring faster growth alongside rising inequality and the disappearance of millions of jobs.
The shift in perspective has accelerated with the development of more advanced tools, including models capable of step-by-step reasoning and autonomous AI agents that can perform tasks independently. These technologies have expanded the range of tasks that can be automated, particularly in entry-level white-collar roles.
Despite this, aggregate data has yet to show a clear impact, reflecting slower corporate adoption compared to the rapid pace of technological advancement. Still, early signals are emerging, especially in declining job opportunities for entry-level roles most exposed to AI.
Economists argue that the impact will not necessarily come through full job replacement, but through job transformation. Estimates indicate that more than half of jobs could be reshaped within a few years, while full replacement remains relatively limited due to implementation complexity and the risks of relying entirely on automated systems.
The key factor determining the scale of disruption is its speed and breadth. A gradual transition would give workers time to adapt, while rapid and widespread change could have severe employment consequences.
What’s Next?
Focus is shifting toward updating social safety nets and retraining programs, while closely monitoring how quickly AI spreads and its real impact on jobs in the coming years.
