CNN reported that U.S. intelligence assesses Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, despite being out of public view and receiving treatment for serious injuries, still plays an important role in shaping Tehran’s strategy during the war and negotiations with the United States.
Details
* The network cited informed sources as saying the exact level of authority inside Iran’s system remains unclear, but Khamenei is believed to be helping determine how Iran manages its negotiations with Washington to end the war.
* Khamenei has not appeared publicly since he was injured in an attack that killed his father and several senior Iranian military commanders at the start of the war, fueling speculation about his health and his position within the power structure.
* The sources said U.S. intelligence has still not been able to visually confirm Khamenei’s whereabouts, partly because he does not use electronic communications and instead relies on in-person meetings or messages carried by couriers.
* The sources added that Khamenei remains isolated while receiving treatment for injuries including severe burns on one side of his body, affecting his face, arm, torso, and leg.
* In contrast, Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol in the office of Iran’s supreme leader, said Khamenei is recovering and that his injuries are limited, adding that a small piece of shrapnel struck him behind the ear and that he will address Iranians at the right time.
* Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media that he held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Khamenei, marking the first reported meeting between a senior Iranian official and the new supreme leader.
* According to CNN, U.S. intelligence analysts are questioning whether some figures within Iran’s power structure may be claiming access to Khamenei in order to use his authority to advance their own agendas.
* U.S. intelligence assesses that the war has weakened Iran’s military capabilities but has not destroyed them, and that around two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers may have survived or been dug out during the ceasefire.
* A separate CIA report found that Iran could likely withstand up to four more months under the ongoing U.S. blockade without total economic destabilization.
* CNN cited one informed source as saying Khamenei appears to be fairly removed from daily decision-making, while senior IRGC officials and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are running day-to-day operations.
* U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s system remains fractured and dysfunctional, which may be hindering its ability to provide a unified response to the U.S. proposal to end the war.
What’s Next?
The key test now is whether Tehran can produce a unified negotiating position, and whether Washington can identify who actually has final decision-making authority inside a system U.S. assessments describe as split between Khamenei’s son, the IRGC, and Ghalibaf.
