Key Points
- Saudi crude shipments tracked at roughly 7 million barrels a day in October, Bloomberg data show.
- That is up from a revised 6.22 million in September and above January's 6.89 million.
- January was the last month unaffected by the war in the Gulf, making October a near-full recovery.
The latest:
Saudi crude exports climbed to about 7 million barrels a day in October, closing in on the pre-war peak recorded in February, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The jump came as governments across the Middle East braced for the possibility of renewed American strikes on Iran and an Iranian response. Saudi officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the figures.
Details:
- The headline number: Total tracked Saudi crude exports reached roughly 7 million barrels a day in October, Bloomberg’s tanker-tracking data show. That compares with a revised 6.22 million barrels a day in September, an increase of close to 780,000 barrels a day in a single month.
- The pre-war benchmark: October’s volume also exceeded the 6.89 million barrels a day shipped in January, which Bloomberg identifies as the most recent month untouched by the war in the Gulf. On that measure, exports have more than recovered the ground lost since hostilities began.
- Hormuz flows flat: Saudi crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz barely shifted month on month, at 3.93 million barrels a day in October against 3.96 million in September. The strait, the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoint, therefore accounted for little of the monthly increase.
- Yanbu does the lifting: Export cargoes from Yanbu on the Red Sea coast rose to 3.07 million barrels a day in October, up from a revised 2.26 million in September. The roughly 810,000 barrel-a-day gain at the western terminal accounts for nearly all of the national increase.
- Domestic deliveries: A further 210,000 barrels a day were delivered from Yanbu to power-generation and water-desalination plants along the kingdom’s Red Sea coast, according to the tracking data. Those volumes are consumed domestically rather than shipped to foreign buyers.
- The February peak: The data place October close to, but still short of, the February high that preceded the war. Bloomberg did not publish a figure for that month, leaving the exact size of the remaining gap unspecified.
- Riyadh silent: Saudi officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the export figures. The kingdom does not routinely confirm tanker-tracking estimates, which are compiled from vessel movements rather than from official loading records.
- The security backdrop: The export surge coincided with Middle Eastern governments preparing for possible renewed American attacks on Iran and a potential retaliation from Tehran. Earlier Bloomberg reporting noted Saudi exports had stayed near wartime highs despite Houthi attacks.
Background:
The Gulf war has disrupted regional crude flows since early this year, with January the last clean month in the data. The Strait of Hormuz carries most Saudi crude eastward, while Yanbu offers an alternative Red Sea route that bypasses the chokepoint entirely.
Between the lines:
The split between the two routes is the detail worth watching. Hormuz volumes were effectively unchanged, while Yanbu added roughly 810,000 barrels a day — meaning the entire October increase moved through the Red Sea rather than the strait that would be most exposed to an Iranian response. Separately, Yanbu’s rise came even as the kingdom kept 210,000 barrels a day for domestic power and desalination.
What’s next
November tanker-tracking data will show whether the Yanbu surge holds or reverses, and whether Hormuz volumes shift. Any renewed American strikes on Iran, or an Iranian response, would be the next test of the Red Sea routing.
