Key Points
- Trump threatened new strikes on Iran, possibly after Tuesday's midterms, four European officials said forces are ready
- Iranian missiles already hit US bases and Gulf energy sites in the last round of fighting
- Gulf hosts fear US installations now draw retaliation onto their cities rather than shielding them
The latest:
US bases built to protect Washington’s Gulf allies have become the most likely targets of Iranian reprisal if Donald Trump orders another round of strikes, officials and delegates told Reuters at Bahrain’s Manama Dialogue. Trump said he could launch another little Operation Epic Fury after Tuesday’s elections. Four European officials said US forces in the region can attack at short notice, possibly this week.
Details:
- The threat: Trump referred to the US-Israeli operation that began on February 28 when he raised acting again after the midterms. In a Pod Force One interview released Monday, he said Washington had not finished off Iran because Tehran kept talking, adding the United States could not allow Iran nuclear weapons.
- The targets: Two European officials told Reuters any US attack would likely hit Iranian nuclear sites including research and development facilities, among them Pickaxe Mountain. They assessed strikes would probably weaken rather than destroy Tehran’s capabilities.
- Iran’s list: Iranian officials told Reuters Tehran has drawn up detailed retaliation target lists covering undersea communications cables and military bases, some covert. Three delegates said the wider risk extends to energy infrastructure, desalination plants, communications networks and visible targets inside Gulf cities.
- Bahrain’s damage: Near the Fifth Fleet base in Juffair, a warehouse roof and front were torn open and charred metres from residential areas, and a radar facing Iran was missing a third of its dish. Reuters reported the damage forces Washington to decide whether to rebuild, harden or withdraw.
- The strategy: Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organises the Manama conference, said Iran’s aim is the departure of US forces, and that the campaign seeks to exhaust rather than defeat the Americans by forcing sustained defence spending.
- Gulf officials: One Gulf official told Reuters they were looking at the worst-case scenario, expecting a US strike followed by Iranian retaliation against civilian infrastructure. Another said only one person decides whether fighting resumes, a reference to Trump.
- White House reply: Asked for comment, a White House official said all options remained available, that Iran faced the easy way or the hard way, and that Trump held all the cards. The official did not address the exposure of US bases hosting allies.
- The diplomacy: Senior Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iranian counterparts in Tehran last month, with Riyadh saying the aim was to prevent renewed military escalation. Qatari officials held meetings in Tehran and Doha over the weekend. Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday.
- Regional warnings: Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told the Manama conference another round would be more dangerous and destructive and lead nowhere. UAE senior official Anwar Gargash said the Emirates hoped for a diplomatic breakthrough but was braced for the worst.
- Nuclear file: Iran’s foreign ministry ruled out enriched uranium leaving the country on Monday and said Tehran was not yet discussing conditions for renewed International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. The spokesman said message exchanges with Washington continue through Qatari mediation.
Background:
Bahrain’s rulers crushed mass protests led largely by its Shi’ite community in 2011 and accused Iran of manipulating the unrest, a charge Tehran denied. Some Iranian hardliners have again called Bahrain Iran’s 14th province, though Tehran abandoned its territorial claim in 1970.
Between the lines:
Reuters reported that Washington’s regional footprint gave Tehran fixed targets rather than deterrence. Hokayem’s assessment that Iran’s goal is American withdrawal, read alongside the strike damage in Juffair and target lists reaching undersea cables, points to a contest over endurance rather than firepower. Gulf hosts, by their own officials’ account, carry the costs of a decision made in Washington.
What’s next
Watch Tuesday’s US midterm elections, the timeline Trump attached to possible action; whether Qatari-mediated message exchanges resume after Iranian negotiators left Doha; and any Iranian move on IAEA inspection conditions.
