The latest:
Qatar exported just 4.58 million tons of LNG in the third quarter, under a quarter of the year-earlier volume, according to Kepler data, after Iranian strikes and Hormuz disruption gutted its main revenue line. LNG normally supplies half the country’s foreign-currency export earnings. QatarEnergy is now locking in long-term American supply that will not start flowing until 2030 or later.
Details:
- The damage: March missile strikes damaged the Ras Laffan liquefaction units known as Trains 4 and 6, taking 12.8 million tons of annual capacity offline, roughly 17% of Qatar’s pre-war capacity. Energy Minister and QatarEnergy Chief Executive Saad al-Kaabi initially estimated repairs at three to five years, then told Reuters on 29 October the work would take about three.
- The export hole: Exports halted almost entirely for three months from March, recovering gradually from June. September volumes reached 1.6 million tons, the highest monthly figure since the war began but still under a quarter of the pre-war monthly average. Around a third of those cargoes went to Kuwait and stayed inside the Gulf.
- The exposure: Qatar exported 79 million tons of LNG last year, 17% of global consumption, with another 20 billion cubic meters piped to the UAE and Oman via Dolphin. LNG made up about 84% of total gas exports by volume, while oil exports averaged only 530,000 barrels per day, leaving foreign-currency income heavily tied to gas.
- No pipeline fix: Unlike neighboring oil exporters, Qatar has no pipeline able to replace seaborne cargoes, and al-Kaabi ruled one out in September. Moving gas to another coast would require new liquefaction plants duplicating existing infrastructure, he said, warning that pipelines and associated facilities could themselves become targets.
- Shipping under fire: The Qatari LNG carrier Al-Maeda was attacked on Friday evening in the Gulf by what owner Nakilat described as unidentified objects, with no crew injuries, no environmental damage and the vessel still operating. Doha condemned a “serious act” threatening navigation and global energy supply, and said investigations are under way. The tanker Al-Ruqayya was attacked in July crossing Hormuz.
- Contract fallout: QatarEnergy said on 27 October it had extended force majeure on deliveries to Italy’s Edison through the end of December. Al-Kaabi cautioned that American cargoes cannot simply substitute for volumes under existing long-term contracts, which specify particular export terminals and destinations.
- The American hedge: QatarEnergy signed two deals with Cheniere Energy on 22 October for a combined 4 million tons a year, split evenly between Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas, running into 2054. A week later it signed a 20-year deal for up to 3 million tons a year from Woodside’s Louisiana LNG, with deliveries expected from 2030.
- Scale check: QatarEnergy holds 70% of the Golden Pass project in Texas against ExxonMobil’s 30%, worth 12.6 million tons a year at full capacity. Combined with the 7 million tons of purchases, the volumes remain modest against pre-war capacity of 77 million tons and a planned expansion to 142 million by 2030.
- Iran’s position: Iran’s National Gas Company said the March attacks halted around 230 million cubic meters of daily capacity across four processing plants, with roughly 100 million restored. The remaining 130 million equals about 16% of last year’s daily output, and the company warned some 11 provinces could face supply problems this winter.
Background:
Qatar is seeking long-term American LNG while mediating between Tehran and Washington to end the war. The Al-Maeda attack came the same day Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran aimed at an Iran-US agreement.
Between the lines:
The timing gap is the core of Qatar’s problem: the Cheniere and Woodside volumes begin arriving in 2030 or later, so they insure against future revenue loss without recovering a single cargo from the damaged Ras Laffan trains or reopening the export route. With repairs running about three years by al-Kaabi’s own estimate and no pipeline alternative, Doha’s near-term exposure to Hormuz is unchanged.
What’s next
Watch the Edison force majeure expiry at end-December, the Al-Maeda investigation, and QatarEnergy’s talks with Venture Global. Al-Kaabi expects further 20-to-25-year supply deals with American and other producers before end-2026.
