Key Points
- UAE petrol prices fall in November, the first drop after three straight monthly increases.
- Special 95 declines 5.6% to Dh4.04 a litre; diesel eases 1% to Dh4.75.
- The cut defies analyst forecasts of another rise after Brent gained about 15% in October.
The latest:
Petrol at UAE pumps will cost less in November, reversing three consecutive monthly increases even as crude hit six-month highs. Special 95 drops 5.6 per cent to Dh4.04 a litre and Super 98 falls 5.5 per cent to Dh4.16, according to The National. Analysts had told the outlet they expected another increase this month.
Details:
- The new prices: Super 98 moves to Dh4.16 a litre from Dh4.40 in October, a 5.5 per cent cut, while Special 95 falls to Dh4.04 from Dh4.28. E-Plus 91 records the steepest decline at 5.7 per cent, dropping to Dh3.97 from Dh4.21, according to The National.
- Diesel lags: Diesel barely moves, easing 1 per cent to Dh4.75 a litre from Dh4.80, far shallower than the petrol grades. The gap leaves diesel the most expensive fuel at UAE pumps heading into November.
- The wider baseline: Despite the November cut, pump prices remain roughly 80 per cent higher than in February, before the start of the Iran war, according to The National. The monthly decline therefore trims only a fraction of the increase built up across the year.
- Crude moved the other way: Brent settled 2.4 per cent higher at $117.64 a barrel on Friday after briefly touching $118, its highest since April. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.08 per cent to $104.12. Both benchmarks posted a fourth straight monthly gain.
- The monthly scale: Brent climbed about 15 per cent over October and WTI about 12 per cent, while both added roughly 0.8 per cent on the week. The more active January futures contract rose 2.37 per cent to $113.43 a barrel.
- What forecasters said: Analysts had told The National that UAE pump prices would climb again in November, arguing that recovering Middle East oil supplies do not translate immediately into a normalised energy market. The November cut runs against that forecast.
- Risk factors cited: Vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and the possibility of renewed US hostilities against Iran have kept markets on edge, according to The National’s reporting on the drivers behind October’s rally.
- The consultant’s read: Ahmed Zaheer, a consultant at Dubai-based Qamar Energy, told The National that persistent geopolitical risks and higher freight costs support higher oil prices, while “resilient supply, weaker demand and the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough” could cap further increases.
Background:
UAE fuel costs have been linked to global oil benchmarks since deregulation in 2015, with a committee resetting prices monthly. Pump rates usually track those benchmarks, though not in every cycle, and governments retain tools to soften spikes at the pump.
Between the lines:
November breaks the usual pattern: crude posted a fourth straight monthly gain and Brent hit a six-month high, yet three petrol grades fell more than 5 per cent. Diesel’s 1 per cent move is the outlier within the outlier, holding near October levels while petrol retreats. With prices still about 80 per cent above February, the cut softens rather than reverses the year’s increase.
What’s next
The next monthly price announcement, due at the end of November, will show whether the cut holds or tracks crude back up. Watch Brent’s direction after its fourth consecutive monthly gain, and any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.
