The latest:
US oil and gas companies pulled in more than $130 billion over the six months from April to September, roughly triple their earnings in the same stretch of 2025, according to a New York Times analysis of more than 50 major producers and refiners. The figure is described as a conservative estimate, excluding March — the war’s first month — and October.
Details:
- The baseline: The same companies earned under $47 billion over the equivalent period in 2025, a difficult stretch when crude was cheaper and firms were absorbing the early fallout of President Trump’s trade war, the New York Times reported. The gap is the clearest measure of how much the conflict reshaped industry earnings.
- The consumer side: Americans have spent $147 billion more on gasoline and diesel since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28, according to an analysis by Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab. That works out to more than $1,100 per household, covering the period through this week.
- Refiners lead: US refiners outperformed, the New York Times reported, after hostilities in the Middle East and Russia damaged fuel-producing plants. With fewer refineries serving global demand, margins widened sharply at the facilities still running. Pipeline-delivered crude also shielded US refiners from steep shipping costs.
- Producers gain: American producers captured higher prices without the risk or cost of operating in conflict zones. Their profits still trail 2022 levels, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil and gas sharply higher. US crude averaged about $90 a barrel from April to September, against roughly $100 in the same 2022 window.
- The majors: Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the two largest US oil companies, reported Friday their strongest third-quarter results in years, lifted by refining. Exxon’s quarterly profit more than doubled; Chevron’s nearly tripled. Valero Energy, the refining giant, saw third-quarter earnings rise more than sixfold.
- Exxon’s framing: Neil Hansen, Exxon’s chief financial officer, said in an interview the company recognizes higher fuel prices strain households and businesses, but argued the sector cannot invest its way out of such conditions overnight because today’s significant decisions were made years earlier.
- Where cash goes: Many companies are paying down debt and holding surplus cash rather than funding extra output or refining capacity. Valero finance chief Homer Bhullar told analysts the company will not change its capital spending approach simply because it has substantial cash, adding that excess will eventually flow to shareholders. He gave no specifics. Chevron’s finance chief Emir Bonner said the money goes onto the balance sheet, an asset the company leans on in difficult periods.
- European peers: Shell reported $12.06 billion in third-quarter profit, more than double the prior year, driven partly by strong refining margins. France’s TotalEnergies also doubled its quarterly earnings to $8.26 billion, the New York Times reported.
- Methodology: The analysis combined reported financial results with, where unavailable, analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. It excluded pipeline operators and service providers, whose performance was less directly tied to the global oil disruption.
Between the lines:
The earnings gap between refiners and producers points to scarcity rather than volume as the profit driver: damaged fuel plants abroad left fewer operating refineries to meet global demand, widening margins. The decision by Valero and others to hold cash rather than expand capacity suggests the industry is treating the windfall as temporary, not as a signal to build.
What’s next
Dozens of additional US oil companies report third-quarter results in the coming weeks, which will test whether the $130 billion estimate holds or rises. Watch whether firms announce dividend increases or share buybacks with the surplus cash.
