The latest:
A broader Emirati return to Yemen would do more than anything else to change the course of the ground war against the Houthis, according to a Foreign Policy report by journalist John Haltiwanger. The report pointed to early signs of a Riyadh-Abu Dhabi thaw, including Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman’s meeting with Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi on October 18.
Details:
- The assessment: April Longley Alley, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Foreign Policy that reconciliation between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is the most important thing that could shift the battle on the ground, citing Emirati military experience and influence over local Yemeni forces.
- The caveat: Alley warned the disputes between the two capitals are hard to bridge, extending beyond Yemen to Sudan and a wider regional rivalry. She assessed that Saudi Arabia does not yet appear willing to make the significant political concessions that would allow a broader Emirati return.
- The rupture: The report said Saudi-Emirati tensions peaked in December and led to the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen, which contributed to the fragmentation of the anti-Houthi camp. The Riyadh-backed counteroffensive has stalled since, with divisions persisting among forces opposed to the group across southern Yemen.
- The military gap: Amr al-Bayd, a Southern Transitional Council official, said the Emirati withdrawal left what he called a “massive vacuum in deterrence” and in operational capability, praising Abu Dhabi as a partner southern forces worked with for years on counterterrorism, fighting the Houthis and administering southern areas.
- What’s unclear: Al-Bayd said the shape of any Emirati return remains undecided — whether limited to funding or extending to a direct role — adding that deeper involvement would help politically and militarily. The details of the understandings between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have not been disclosed.
- The signals: Foreign Policy cited reports that the UAE agreed to resume funding for forces in southern Yemen, alongside the Khalid bin Salman–Mohammed bin Zayed meeting on October 18. What was agreed at that meeting, and when any resumed funding would take effect, was not specified.
- The sticking point: Any wider Emirati engagement may hinge on Riyadh’s position on southern Yemen’s future, particularly the Southern Transitional Council’s independence demands. Alley assessed that Abu Dhabi will seek clear representation of its southern allies’ demands in any political settlement, alongside its concerns over the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Islah party.
- The red line: The council has indicated it will not fight beyond the borders of former South Yemen until Riyadh accepts its demand for an independence referendum. Al-Bayd said the council’s core priority is defending southern areas, a constraint that limits any offensive aimed at Houthi-held territory further north.
- Where it would matter: Alley said restored coordination between the two countries, allowing reinforcement of the southern front and the western coast, offers the best chance for Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government to improve their forces’ performance, particularly in command and control.
Background:
The UAE was a core partner in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and built direct ties with southern forces, including the Southern Transitional Council, which seeks independence for the formerly separate South Yemen. Those ties became a source of friction with Riyadh, which backs the internationally recognized government.
Between the lines:
Two conditions in the report pull against each other. Abu Dhabi’s leverage comes from the southern forces it funds and trains, but those same forces have told Riyadh they will not advance north without an independence referendum. That makes the Emirati military asset inseparable from the political demand Saudi Arabia has so far declined to meet.
What’s next
Watch whether Emirati funding for southern forces is formally restored, whether further Saudi-Emirati meetings follow the October 18 session in Abu Dhabi, and whether Riyadh signals any shift on the Southern Transitional Council’s referendum demand.
