Key Points
- Trump headlined seven midterm rallies in seven states in one week, speaking more than 11 hours.
- His advisers see him as the strongest motivator for low-propensity Republican voters in red states.
- Analysts expect Republicans to lose the House and possibly the Senate in November.
The latest:
President Trump spoke for more than 11 hours across seven midterm rallies in seven states in a single week, from Kansas on Monday to Michigan on Sunday, with stops in North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida and Georgia. The Wall Street Journal attended all seven. By Saturday his voice was audibly hoarse, and crowds were generally smaller than when his own name was on the ballot.
Details:
- The strategy: Advisers view Trump as the single best motivator for voters, according to the Journal, and his operation is rerunning much of the 2024 playbook: targeting the MAGA base, especially low-propensity voters, in largely red states. The aim is to stem Republican losses by driving Election Day turnout.
- The stakes: Most analysts expect Republicans will lose control of the House and possibly the Senate. Trump carries the lowest approval rating of any president heading into midterms in Wall Street Journal polling dating to the 1990s. Far-reaching losses could signal his political power is diminishing.
- The White House case: A senior White House official said the approach is paying dividends despite Trump’s polarizing profile, citing Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has seen an uptick in enthusiasm in internal metrics. The official did not release the underlying numbers or name other states showing similar movement.
- The risk: Trump has made statements that could complicate matters for vulnerable Republicans. In Georgia on Saturday he boasted that U.S. oil revenues are surging because of the Middle East conflict, said advisers warned him not to raise it given higher gasoline costs, and predicted pump prices would fall.
- On stamina: Mike Lindell, a businessman and longtime friend of the president, told a videoconference of Trump allies that Trump “looked the tiredest I’ve ever seen him,” citing the back-to-back pace. A White House official said nonstop travel has pushed the administration to its limits but insisted Trump is energized.
- The pushback: Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who has traveled frequently with Trump, dismissed the idea the 80-year-old president is slowing down, suggesting he might be part cyborg. Trump returned repeatedly to the mental acuity test he says he aced, telling a South Carolina crowd he knows everything he is doing.
- The protests: Protesters are increasingly entering events, staying quiet and waiting to interrupt at key moments. In Clemson, S.C., a rallygoer struck a protester midway through Trump’s remarks, and Trump called the scene incredible and unbelievable. In Sioux City, a protester in patriotic gear shouted at the president and was escorted out.
- The crowd claim: Trump bristles at small crowds. In Fort Myers, Fla., he said the line outside a packed college arena was 10 miles long; a large number of people were outside, but the line did not stretch 10 miles. At every rally he counts the cameras at the back of the room.
- The subculture: A rally economy has formed over a decade. Blake Marnell, a San Diego retiree who wears a brick-patterned suit, estimated he has driven more than 8,000 miles this cycle and expects 6,000 more. Vendor Jonas Williams said his merchandise business brings in six figures.
Between the lines:
The week doubles as a test of whether Trump’s personal draw still converts into votes without his name on the ballot. The campaign is betting it does, yet smaller crowds and the hoarse voice point to the limits of the format. Some Republicans worry the spectacle motivates Democrats as effectively as it motivates the base.
What’s next
The November midterms are the measurable test: whether House and Senate control flips, and whether turnout rises in the red states Trump targeted, starting with Kansas and Sen. Roger Marshall’s race.