US moves third carrier group to Gulf as Iran braces for strikes

The latest:

A third US aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 additional sailors and Marines are moving toward the Persian Gulf, giving commanders more options if President Donald Trump restarts hostilities with Iran. The war Trump once said would end in weeks is entering its eighth month. Bloomberg reported Iran is bracing for a fresh American bombing campaign around the midterms.

Details:

• The deployment: Bloomberg reported the additional carrier strike group and 10,000 sailors and Marines were ordered toward the Persian Gulf to widen the options available to US commanders. Trump has repeatedly hinted his forces would resume strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
• Trump’s framing: Speaking to reporters Thursday, the president said the US had hit Iran hard and might go somewhat further. His comments suggest strikes are unlikely before Nov. 3, with Republicans facing the prospect of losing one chamber of Congress, if not both, partly over war-driven fuel prices.
• Hegseth in Israel: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced stop in Israel this week and met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu days before his reelection bid, according to Bloomberg. Israel launched the war alongside the United States. Staffing at Mideast bases hit hard by Iranian counterstrikes has reportedly been reduced.
• Saudi evacuations: The State Department this week ordered the departure of some diplomats and family members from Saudi Arabia after the Iran-backed Houthis expanded the conflict into the kingdom. Houthi drones and missiles struck Riyadh airport and energy facilities, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.
• Tehran’s planning: A person familiar with Tehran’s thinking told Bloomberg that Iran is preparing to retaliate across the Middle East, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and that the window between the US election and the new Congress taking office in early January will be the most difficult period.
• The Gulf view: A person familiar with the UAE government’s thinking said some Gulf-state officials hold a high degree of confidence that violence will resume, and fear it could prove worse than the fighting that preceded the current pause. Neither person was authorized to speak publicly.
• Shipping attacks: Shipping and maritime security officials said Iran is attacking more vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz, and inflicting more severe damage than earlier in the conflict, as it switches from attack drones to guided missiles.
• The expert read: Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution assessed that all indications point to a resumption of war and a major bombing campaign, while the timing remains uncertain. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said renewed fighting could help Netanyahu force rivals into a national unity government.
• The diplomatic track: A senior European diplomat said the US and Israeli elections are complicating efforts to halt the march toward war, and that other nations must move faster to reach a deal. The person familiar with Tehran’s thinking said the only exit is an agreement letting both sides claim a win.

Background:

Israel’s election Tuesday is the first since the 2023 Hamas attacks that triggered Netanyahu’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon. If he loses, chief rival Gadi Eisenkot may be less eager to restart the Iran war at the start of his term.

Between the lines:

Two electoral calendars now sit between the current pause and renewed fighting. Vaez argued both leaders may treat war with Iran as a political escape hatch, and warned a conflict meant to rescue their fortunes could bury them instead. The third carrier group and the Saudi departure orders suggest Washington is positioning for escalation rather than winding down.

What’s next

Israel votes Tuesday; US midterms follow Nov. 3. Watch whether Trump authorizes strikes in the gap before the new Congress is seated in early January, and whether Houthi attacks on Saudi targets widen further.

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