Iran stalls US talks to damage Trump before midterms, officials say

The latest:

Tehran has deliberately prolonged negotiations with Washington to weaken President Donald Trump politically before the November 3 congressional elections, three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider told Reuters. The officials, speaking anonymously, said the clerical establishment is withholding concessions it believes would hand Trump a win, and is preparing instead for renewed American and Israeli strikes in the eight-month-old war.

Details:

• The calculation: The officials said Tehran sees little reason to move before November 3, because any concession would register as a political victory for Trump. One said Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks rather than for a deal, and that the leadership is determined to deny Trump that win.
• The analyst’s read: Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz said that by prolonging the talks Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said the clerical establishment plainly wants to hurt Trump politically, but assessed that Tehran’s deeper belief is that Trump seeks regime change.
• The sequencing fight: Under Israeli pressure, Washington wants Iran’s nuclear programme on the table from the outset. Tehran insists its conditions under what it calls a seven-day plan be met first, and offers no prospect of surrendering the leverage it seized over the Strait of Hormuz when the war began in February.
• The Qatari offer: Iran’s proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days under Iranian control, provided Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased oil export restrictions, released frozen assets and ended hostilities on all fronts. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Sunday the offer remains open.
• The economic cost: Annual inflation reached 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, and the rial has lost nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reimposed its naval blockade in July. Energy platform Vortexa recorded Iranian seaborne crude exports at zero from mid-September through October 5.
• Why the distrust: One official traced Tehran’s position to attacks that derailed earlier diplomacy: an Israeli strike in June 2025 wrecked a planned sixth round of talks in Oman, and the US and Israel launched the war last February just after a round ended with further technical discussions already scheduled.
• The bombing question: Trump has said the United States will not strike Iran again before November 3. The officials said Tehran nonetheless expects bombing to resume sooner or later, and is positioning for that outcome rather than for an agreement.
• The Israel track: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed Iran with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday during an unannounced visit to Israel, three Israeli officials said, a week before a parliamentary election in which Netanyahu’s position is at risk.
• No comment: Iran’s Foreign Ministry and the White House did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. Trump has repeatedly said he expects oil prices to fall after the elections, but has not set out a detailed plan to end the war or reopen the strait.
• The domestic strain: Thousands were killed at the turn of the year when security forces crushed spiralling anti-government protests, and the US maritime blockade and sanctions have severed Iran’s oil export revenues.

Background:

The war began in February when the United States and Israel struck Iran. Tehran has since kept traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy route, to a trickle through threatened and actual attacks. Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful; Western powers allege military dimensions.

Between the lines:

Holding a state between war and peace lets Tehran keep pressure on Washington while still claiming commitment to diplomacy. The cost is visible in the numbers: zero seaborne crude exports, 73.6% inflation, a currency down 35%. Leylaz assessed that a sustainable deal is no longer possible even after Trump, and that nothing returns to the pre-war status quo.

What’s next

The November 3 congressional elections, whether Trump’s pledge not to strike before that date holds, Israel’s parliamentary vote next week, and any movement on the Qatari-mediated seven-day offer Araqchi says remains open.