Key Points
- Economist Ziyad al-Hashemi urged Iraq's oil minister not to rush into buying supertankers now.
- He said wartime demand pushed vessel prices to record highs with multi-year delivery waits.
- His alternative: lease a limited number of ships first to test Iraq's commercial capability.
The latest:
Buying supertankers while freight markets are distorted by war could lock Iraq into assets bought at the top of the cycle, economist and international transport consultant Ziyad al-Hashemi said. He argued that exceptional shipping demand has lifted vessel prices to abnormal levels likely to retreat once the crisis ends, and urged the oil ministry to test the market through chartering before committing capital.
Details:
- The timing argument: Al-Hashemi said the current surge in demand for oil transport should not be read as a permanent condition on which a long-term investment decision can be built. His case is that today’s pricing reflects a wartime disruption rather than a structural shift in the tanker market.
- Vessel prices: Demand for ships has reached historic levels, he said, with prices at record highs and delivery waiting periods stretching into years. A purchase agreed now would therefore be priced at a peak and delivered into a market that may already have normalized.
- Market study first: He called on the ministry to review freight rates from before the crisis, contact customers to learn what shipping arrangements they already have in place, and assess whether Iraq can build a competitive and profitable operating model rather than simply owning hulls.
- Staffing question: Al-Hashemi urged an assessment of Iraqi commercial and managerial expertise in business development, marketing, negotiation and client access before any large fleet is established, treating human capability as a precondition rather than something acquired after the ships arrive.
- Seafarer certificates: He asked the ministry to verify the International Maritime Organization’s position on certificates issued to graduates of Iraq’s maritime academy, saying recent updates point to restrictions on them — a constraint that would bear directly on crewing a national fleet.
- Contracting risk: In his own assessment, al-Hashemi flagged the possibility of commissions, manipulation and price inflation in contracting with shipbuilding yards, singling out Chinese yards. He presented this as a procurement exposure to be managed, not as an allegation against any named party.
- The interim option: Rather than moving straight to purchase, he proposed starting — after a full study — with limited time charters or contracts of affreightment covering agreed volumes, an approach that commits far less capital while the market is still unsettled.
Background:
Al-Hashemi argues chartering would let Iraq test its own fleet-management capacity, measure real demand and competition, and train staff before deciding whether to expand leasing or buy new tankers outright.
Between the lines:
His framing puts commercial viability ahead of owning a national fleet as a goal in itself. Having raised delivery waits of several years, record purchase prices, unresolved seafarer certification and contracting exposure, he treats sustainable profit and added value within the global energy chain as the test any purchase must pass — not national ownership.
What’s next
Al-Hashemi asked the government and oil ministry to complete a study of the market, commercial capacity, staffing and leasing options before allocating funds, then decide whether purchase is the most viable route.
