Gulf oil exports rebound to 23.3 million bpd, Goldman says

The latest:

Gulf oil exports have climbed back to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with their 2025 average, after doubling through September, Goldman Sachs estimated in a note reported by Reuters. The bank attributed the recovery to higher flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, and said crude alone accounted for nearly 90% of the month’s rebound.

Details:

• The headline number: Goldman Sachs put total Gulf exports at 23.3 million bpd over the last week, matching the 2025 average. The figure includes what the bank calls dark exports — cargoes carried by ships sailing with their location transponders switched off, which do not appear in conventional tracking data.
• Crude leads: Estimated crude exports reached 19 million bpd over the last week, or 108% of their 2025 average, according to the bank. Crude accounted for nearly 90% of September’s recovery in overall Gulf exports, making it the single driver behind the return to pre-disruption volumes.
• Dark exports: About 5.2 million bpd of the September total moved as dark exports, Goldman estimated — close to a quarter of all Gulf shipments. The bank did not identify the exporters or destinations behind those cargoes.
• The route: The rebound ran through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint linking Gulf producers to Asian and European buyers. Goldman said ship-to-ship transfers, in which cargo is moved between vessels at sea rather than at a terminal, formed part of the recovered flows.
• Refined products lag: Exports of refined products and LPG have grown, but diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments remain at 50% of their 2025 average, the bank said. That split leaves the recovery concentrated in raw crude while the higher-value fuel trade stays roughly half-shut.
• Market balance: Goldman assessed the global oil market as roughly balanced in September. It said commercial oil stocks across OECD countries are in line with late February 2026 levels, suggesting the supply interruption did not force a sustained inventory drawdown in advanced economies.
• Price call: The bank said the adaptation of both Middle East supply and Chinese import demand supports its base case that Brent moderates to $85 a barrel by year-end and to $80 in 2027. The projection is a forecast, not a market outcome.
• Where prices stand: Brent crude was heading for a monthly gain of around 14% in September, its largest since July, according to Reuters. The rally ran alongside the export recovery Goldman described, leaving current prices well above the level the bank projects for year-end.
• The risk flagged: Goldman said it still worries about “renewed potential escalation that damages more energy infrastructure,” which it said could cause significant upside to prices. The bank did not specify which facilities or routes it considered most exposed.

Between the lines:

The two halves of Goldman’s note pull in opposite directions. Its $85 and $80 forecasts rest on supply routes that now depend partly on transponder-off shipping and at-sea transfers — workarounds that restored crude volumes but left diesel, gasoline and jet fuel at half their 2025 level. The same note flags infrastructure damage as a significant upside price risk, which is a caveat attached to the forecast rather than a separate scenario.

What’s next

Watch whether refined-product exports close the gap toward their 2025 average, whether dark export volumes hold near 5.2 million bpd in October, and whether Brent begins converging toward Goldman’s $85 year-end call after its 14% September gain.