Key Points
- An Iranian official told Bloomberg the economy is extremely painful but Tehran is adapting.
- Trump said Iran has effectively abandoned any plans to obtain a nuclear weapon.
- Hormuz remains closed, inflation near 90%, and Tehran expects a new US bombing campaign.
The latest:
Iran is bracing for a fresh American bombing campaign that could exceed the last one, an Iranian official in Tehran told Bloomberg, while describing the economic situation as extremely painful but survivable. The same official said Tehran retains the ability to respond. Inflation has reached roughly 90% as the US blockade squeezes crude exports, according to Bloomberg.
Details:
- The economy: The Iranian official, who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity in order to talk candidly, said the country is adapting to the pressure. Bloomberg reported inflation at record levels of about 90%, driven by the American blockade choking Tehran’s crude oil exports.
- Military expectation: The same official said Tehran is preparing for a new US bombing campaign that may be larger than the previous one, while insisting Iran has the capacity to retaliate. He did not describe the form that response would take, nor specify any expected timing for the strikes.
- Hormuz closed: Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened unless Iran’s conditions are met, according to Iranian media. Ghalibaf did not enumerate those conditions publicly, leaving the terms of any reopening undefined.
- Pressure on Washington: Ghalibaf added that the United States can no longer stall to buy time, in remarks carried by Iranian outlets. The statement ties the waterway, through which a large share of global crude moves, directly to the stalled diplomatic track.
- Trump’s assessment: President Donald Trump said Saturday that Iran has effectively abandoned any plans to obtain a nuclear weapon, and that he will make a decision on the file soon. He gave reporters no timetable for that decision and did not cite the basis for his assessment.
- The threat: Trump said the United States will reach an agreement with Iran either the easy way or the hard way. He also predicted oil prices would begin to fall, without specifying a timeframe or what would drive the decline.
- Diplomats expelled: A US official said Washington expelled two Iranian diplomats from Tehran’s delegation to the UN General Assembly after they ignored an earlier order to leave, Axios reported. The official said the pair were found still in New York long after the meetings ended.
- The message: The American official framed the expulsions as proof that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “means what he says.” No Iranian response to the expulsions was issued publicly alongside the US account.
Between the lines:
Tehran’s two public positions sit uneasily together: an official concedes extreme economic pain while the parliament speaker holds the Hormuz closure open as leverage. Trump’s claim that Iran has dropped its nuclear ambitions, paired with his either-way ultimatum and the diplomat expulsions, suggests Washington reads the 90% inflation figure and export squeeze as the pressure doing the work.
What’s next
Watch for Trump’s promised decision on Iran, any movement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Tehran spells out the conditions Ghalibaf referenced. Oil prices and further expulsions are the near-term indicators.
