The latest

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s estimate of nearly 9 million barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz is almost double the level indicated by many tanker trackers, exposing a major information gap over Persian Gulf exports. Wright said the figure was a seven-day average and argued private services miss vessels moving covertly. Trackers generally put recent flows at 4 million to 5 million barrels daily. The true volume remains unverified because ships have disabled tracking signals and commercial satellite coverage has sharply diminished.

Details

• Price signal: Oil below $90 a barrel has not reflected the extreme shortage some forecasts anticipated after the Iran war began. Strategic reserve releases, bypass pipelines, reduced Chinese imports and commercial inventories have helped. West Texas Intermediate closed above $100 on only 18 of 115 trading sessions since the war started, according to Bloomberg Opinion.
• Monitoring collapse: Before the conflict, Automatic Identification System transmissions supplied vessel identities, positions, headings and speeds, while satellite pictures filled gaps. Now, nearly all vessels have gone dark. The column says most imagery vendors, under Washington pressure, stopped selling high-resolution pictures, and repeated ship-to-ship transfers further obscure cargo routes.
• Sparse snapshots: The market is now relying on two European Union-operated satellites that provide a Hormuz snapshot every three to five days, rather than several images daily, the column says. Their known orbits may allow loaders to time activity between overpasses. Occasional AIS signals offer only partial confirmation.
• Estimate mechanics: From identified vessels, the columnist assesses at least 5 million barrels daily are crossing. He calculates that one unobserved supertanker each day could lift that to 7 million, and two could lift it to 9 million. Those are scenario adjustments, not independent measurements.
• Convoy distortion: Wright’s figure covers one week. Covert crossings typically occur in convoys, so an average spanning two convoys could overstate a sustainable daily rate. The estimate therefore does not establish that 9 million barrels crossed every day beyond that period.
• Spill evidence: Available satellite images show oil spills in the strait growing over time, according to the column. The writer interprets them as evidence both of Iranian attacks on tankers and continued efforts to keep vessels moving. The material provides no verified tally of attacks or damaged ships.

Between the lines

Public data contradict Wright’s estimate, but their limitations prevent a definitive rejection. The disputed gap is roughly 3 million to 5 million barrels daily between observed movements and the US claim. Washington may hold broader military information, but no publicly testable evidence is presented here.

What’s next

The next test will be the government’s subsequent seven-day flow estimate and the next European satellite snapshots, available every three to five days. Watch whether tanker trackers continue reporting 4 million to 5 million barrels daily while Washington remains near 9 million.