The latest

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is far below prewar levels despite President Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S. has “total control” of the waterway. Tracking data recorded 14 crossings Tuesday, including 11 through the route administered by Iran, compared with more than 130 daily before the war. U.S. naval escorts have helped some tankers transit, but sporadic Iranian drone and missile attacks continue to deter shipowners, captains and insurers.

Details

• Crossings remain depressed: Crossings averaged 26 a day in July and 33 in June after renewed attacks curtailed an agreement to reopen the strait. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that Hormuz had effectively closed again following the deal’s collapse last month, disrupting an early recovery in Gulf oil supplies.
• Omani route avoided: Kpler said roughly half the vessels crossing in August used the Iranian-administered route. The remainder switched off location beacons, leaving their paths unknown. Only two of 166 crossings were confirmed on the U.S.-backed corridor along Oman, which maritime-risk company Marisks said was not reliably protected.
• Insurance costs surge: War-risk insurance for a Hormuz transit has climbed to as much as 10% of a vessel’s value, according to broker Marsh, from about 0.25% before the war. Marsh estimated coverage could cost between $3 million and $10 million for one large-tanker voyage.
• Energy losses mount: Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said disruption had cost the world more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February. Prolonged restrictions could raise energy and shipping costs, revive inflation and weaken global growth while increasing U.S. fuel and consumer prices before the midterm elections.
• Ceasefire unravels: Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran in April and lifted it under a June agreement intended to reopen Hormuz and wind down the conflict. The ceasefire collapsed in early July after Iran targeted commercial vessels and Washington accused Tehran of violating the deal. The U.S. resumed strikes and withdrew sanctions relief.
• Risks spread south: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck the Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship Tihamah near Yemen on Tuesday, killing four sailors, according to Yemeni authorities. MarineTraffic said they were the first deaths linked to Houthi shipping attacks since the U.S.-Iran war began. The vessel was struck again while rescuers evacuated its crew.

Background

Before the war, Hormuz carried about one-fifth of the world’s oil. Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval units continue telling ships by radio to seek permission before crossing. U.S. forces, meanwhile, fired on a Panama-flagged cargo ship Tuesday after the military said its crew ignored warnings against attempting to breach the blockade.

What’s next

Key indicators will be daily crossing totals, confirmed use of the Omani corridor and changes in war-risk premiums. Any renewed Iranian attack on commercial shipping would test U.S. protection claims and could further delay the recovery of Gulf energy exports.