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Talks to end the war between the United States and Iran have entered a more complicated phase, after the leaked draft memorandum hit two core obstacles: what will Tehran offer on the nuclear file, and what will it receive immediately on sanctions and frozen funds?
The draft revealed by Al Hadath appears broad on paper: a comprehensive ceasefire, guarantees for freedom of navigation in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman, a monitoring mechanism, and later negotiations on unresolved files. But the pessimism reported by The Wall Street Journal shows that the text has not yet become a signable agreement.
Details:
• According to what Al Hadath reported, the draft includes 9 clauses, most notably an immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire on all fronts, and a mutual commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic facilities.
• The draft also provides for halting military operations and media campaigns, respecting state sovereignty, and guaranteeing freedom of navigation in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman, with a joint mechanism to monitor implementation and settle disputes.
• The first sticking point is highly enriched uranium. Washington wants a clearer commitment from Iran from the start, not a promise deferred to a later phase. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. fears Tehran may secure economic relief and then stall on the nuclear file.
• The second sticking point is frozen funds. Iran is pressing for clear details on sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, while Washington links any broad relief to tangible concessions on the nuclear program.
• The Strait of Hormuz: according to The Wall Street Journal, Iran has agreed to waive ship fees during the talks, but it still insists on a role in managing the strait and discussing transit fees and protection services. This is the core Gulf concern: reopening the strait is not enough if its rules remain in Tehran’s hands.
• Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Iran’s central bank governor arrived in Doha to discuss issues including Hormuz, uranium, and frozen funds.
• Pakistan is trying to keep the momentum alive. Army chief Asim Munir says a U.S.-Iran agreement is now close. His remarks came during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while Chinese President Xi Jinping praised Pakistan’s role in Middle East peace efforts.
• Beijing does not appear to be a direct mediator in the text, but it is giving Pakistan political cover. That matters for the process, because China has close ties with Iran and, at the same time, needs stable energy markets.
• Trump has further complicated the scene by bringing the Abraham Accords into the settlement track, proposing that Arab and Islamic countries, and perhaps Iran later, join a wider normalization framework.
What Next?
The real indicator will be three points:
- Will Iran accept a clear formula for its stockpile of highly enriched uranium?
- Will Washington offer a practical timetable for sanctions relief and the release of funds?
- And will the Strait of Hormuz reopen as a free navigation route, or not?
