Israel continues to strike Iran as it tries to finish off as many targets as possible before Trump’s timing imposes its own logic on the campaign. Tehran lit up overnight, with much of the capital already without electricity, as successive waves of heavy bombardment hit the city. Fifty Israeli aircraft also targeted nuclear facilities and military production sites across Iran, including the heavy water facility at Arak and an explosives materials plant linked to uranium enrichment in Yazd. Iran said an airstrike also hit Tehran University of Science and Technology.
At the same time, Tel Aviv has begun to feel the pressure of attrition on its advanced air defenses. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel has started rationing its best interceptors in order to preserve stocks, as Iran has continued firing daily barrages, some of which recently got through and struck Dimona and Arad.
The question now is: how much longer can Israel afford to spend its most expensive defensive assets if the current pace continues? The same paper said Israel has used upgraded versions of David’s Sling to intercept larger and longer-range missiles, but with mixed results, reflecting real pressure on its layered defenses.
On the other side, Iran still retains some capacity to inflict harm beyond its immediate borders. The New York Times and The Washington Post reported that an Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia wounded 12 American troops, two of them seriously, and damaged at least two KC-135 refueling aircraft. That does not negate the erosion of Iran’s arsenal, but it does confirm that what remains is still capable of causing pain.
On another front, Israel said it detected a missile launched from Yemen today, the first Houthi attack on Israel in the current war. This development gives Tehran another tool with which to widen the pressure theater, and perhaps brings Yemen, cautiously and belatedly, back into the equation after prolonged ожидание and conflicting expectations around its role.
On the front of the Gulf cities’ daily share of Iranian attacks, the port of Salalah in southern Oman was struck by two drones, injuring a worker and causing limited damage to a crane at the port. Does this mean Oman has now returned to the list of places hit by the strikes, especially after its foreign minister implicitly gave Iran the right to target neighboring states in self-defense?
What next?
• Israel will most likely continue striking what remains of Iran’s launch platforms and production infrastructure before Trump suddenly resets the clock for everyone.
• The Houthis are likely to remain a tightly calibrated tool of expansion, both internally and externally, and are not expected to become a full new front.
• The targeting of Salalah means Oman now combines three roles at once: partner in the maritime corridor, channel of communication, and drone target.
(Analysis)
Israel is racing against time because it knows Trump is looking for an exit and has tasked his vice president, who opposed the war, with sitting at the negotiating table.
The Houthis made their entrance in stoppage time: to stretch the opponent’s defenses and raise the cost of interception.
And Oman, which presents itself primarily as a channel for de-escalatory diplomacy, entered drone range today.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal; Reuters; The Associated Press; The New York Times; The Washington Post; The Times of Israel; Mehr.
