Pakistan’s confrontation with Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government escalated sharply after Islamabad carried out airstrikes on Afghanistan’s two largest cities — including Kabul — and on targets in Kandahar and the eastern province of Paktia, according to officials and statements from both sides. The strikes came only hours after Afghan forces attacked Pakistani border positions, which Afghan and Pakistani officials described as retaliation for earlier Pakistani strikes earlier in the week.
Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Asif, described the moment as a breaking point, saying on social media that Pakistan’s “cup of patience has overflowed” and calling it “open war.” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the strikes hit Kabul, Kandahar — where the Taliban’s supreme leader Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada resides — and Paktia. Afghan military sources said at least one ammunition depot was bombed in Kabul, while Pakistan’s state media reported an ammunition depot was also hit in Kandahar.
The flare-up is the culmination of months of deteriorating ties between two neighbors that share a long, porous border. Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Taliban government of harboring the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a militant group that has intensified attacks on Pakistani security forces. The Taliban deny hosting the group and argue Pakistan is shifting blame for its own domestic security problems.
Detail
- Sequence of escalation: Pakistani strikes followed Afghan attacks on Pakistani border positions, according to both Afghan and Pakistani accounts; each side framed its actions as retaliation for earlier strikes.
- Targets cited: Taliban officials said Kabul and Kandahar were hit, along with Paktia; Afghan sources and Pakistani state media cited ammunition depots among the targets.
- Competing casualty claims: Pakistan and the Taliban issued sharply different death tolls; independent confirmation was not immediately possible.
- The central dispute: Pakistan says the Taliban allow TTP fighters to train and operate in Afghanistan and launch cross-border attacks; the Taliban reject the allegation.
- Regional security concern: The TTP’s resurgence — alongside the presence of other militant groups in Afghanistan — has alarmed regional states and fueled pressure on Kabul to rein in armed actors.
- Mediation track: Previous ceasefire/mediation efforts have been attempted; regional actors, including Iran, signaled readiness to help mediate again.
(Analysis) Why now?
Three pressures appear to be converging:
- Domestic security pressure inside Pakistan: With attacks attributed to the TTP continuing, Pakistan’s leadership faces rising demand for decisive action and deterrence.
- Collapse of “managed tension”: Repeated border incidents and failed de-escalation attempts have eroded the credibility of ceasefires and created a hair-trigger retaliation cycle.
- A harder view of the Taliban in Islamabad: Pakistan’s posture has shifted from earlier accommodation of the Taliban after 2021 toward a more openly confrontational stance, as the TTP issue has become central.
What next?
- Watch for whether backchannel mediation produces a temporary ceasefire, or whether both sides broaden strikes deeper across the border — a move that would raise the risk of sustained conflict, displacement near frontier areas, and disruption at crossings.
