.The low likelihood of a broad popular uprising in the near term ties the war’s end more to hard-power balances: launch platforms, missile stocks, and command-and-control nodes. 2.The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as IRGC commander entrenches the shift of decision-making weight toward the security-military institution, narrowing space for formal diplomacy and complicating Iran’s outward messaging. 3.Open-source estimates point to more than 2,000 targets struck inside Iran in the first days — with focus on military and leadership sites plus missile and air-defense systems — making the remaining launch capacity the real fuel that either extends the war or shortens it.