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The AI investment boom has pushed IBM into one of its most difficult moments in the market. Companies are cutting spending on hardware installed at their own premises while redirecting budgets toward the data centers, memory and servers required to run artificial intelligence systems.

Chief Executive Arvind Krishna issued an unexpected statement ahead of the official earnings release after the board decided the quarter’s performance required an early warning. Krishna acknowledged that IBM had “faltered,” sending its shares down 25% and reducing its market value to just under $200 billion.

The warning was particularly significant because IBM’s earnings have historically been stable and its quarterly calls rarely produced major surprises. The company must now explain where it stands in a market whose priorities are being rapidly reshaped by AI.

Details

• Historic decline: IBM shares recorded their worst one-day loss, falling 25%.
• Spending shift: Companies are prioritizing AI infrastructure over the traditional business hardware IBM sells.
• Early warning: The company released preliminary results instead of waiting for its scheduled earnings report.
• Critical question: Krishna must clarify whether customers will resume purchases or whether the market has entered a structural transition.
• Next update: IBM is due to report its official results after markets close on Wednesday.

Between the lines

The AI boom is not benefiting every technology company equally. As investment moves toward specialized computing infrastructure, companies with businesses tied to traditional hardware may come under pressure even if they also offer AI-related products.

What to watch

Attention will focus on IBM’s outlook for the next two quarters. If management cannot provide a clear view of when demand will recover, investors may conclude that the weakness represents a long-term shift rather than a temporary pause in customer spending.

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The United States and Iran moved closer to a wider military confrontation after the U.S. military announced that two American service members were killed and another remains missing following an Iranian attack on a base hosting U.S. forces in Jordan. Washington responded with strikes targeting Iranian military facilities and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces.

Details

• U.S. response: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the strikes targeted coastal surveillance sites, air defense facilities, and forces it said were responsible for the attack on American troops in Jordan.
• Iranian attacks: Iranian state media reported that U.S. strikes hit sites in Sirik, Bandar Abbas, and Qeshm Island. Iran also announced attacks targeting Kuwait, while Bahrain and Jordan said they intercepted missiles and drones.
• U.S. casualties: The U.S. military confirmed the deaths of two service members and the disappearance of a third. The Wall Street Journal reported that the attack targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
• Military buildup: The Wall Street Journal and Israeli media reported that additional U.S. aerial refueling aircraft and fighter jets have arrived in the region as Washington tightened its travel advisory for the Middle East and later issued a worldwide security alert.
• Israel kept out: Israeli media, citing Israeli officials, reported that Washington currently does not want Israel to participate in military operations despite close security coordination, in an effort to limit further regional escalation.

Background

The latest escalation followed the collapse of the understanding announced by President Donald Trump with Iran weeks ago. Since then, the conflict has expanded to include attacks on military bases, critical infrastructure, and strategic locations across the Gulf, while prospects for renewed diplomacy have diminished.

Between the lines

The deaths of U.S. service members mark a significant turning point, increasing pressure within the Trump administration for a stronger military response. At the same time, according to Israeli officials, Washington is seeking to keep Israel out of the fighting to reduce the risk of the conflict expanding into a multi-front regional war.

What to watch

Attention will focus on the scale of any additional U.S. military response, whether Iran broadens its attacks on American bases or regional infrastructure, and whether diplomatic efforts emerge to prevent further escalation.

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The latest

Washington’s ability to squeeze Iran’s economy is weakening as a Chinese financial network operating outside the dollar system expands. China has become the largest buyer of Iranian oil, while most payments are settled in yuan through intermediaries and smaller financial institutions that are difficult for the U.S. to monitor or disrupt.

The system gives Tehran a way to use its revenues without transferring them directly to Iran. Funds are deposited in China and used to pay contractors or purchase car parts, solar panels and dual-use materials. Front companies in Hong Kong and elsewhere support the network, alongside a shadow fleet that disguises the origin of Iranian crude.

The shift extends beyond Iran. Use of China’s cross-border payment system has doubled since the war in Ukraine, while the yuan’s share of global trade finance has climbed to 6%. Beijing is also expanding mBridge, a platform for direct digital payments between central banks that includes the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Details

• Oil revenue: Iran earned up to $43 billion from oil sales in 2024 before discounts, despite U.S. sanctions.
• Chinese lifeline: By the end of 2022, China was buying more than 90% of Iran’s crude, according to estimates cited by U.S. lawmakers.
• Alternative system: Daily transactions through China’s cross-border payment network averaged about $115 billion during the three months after the war began.
• Dollar power: The currency still accounts for roughly 80% of international trade finance, but loses much of its enforcement value when transactions bypass U.S. banks.
• Hidden routes: The network uses shell companies, barter deals and smaller Chinese institutions to shield major banks from sanctions exposure.

Between the lines

China is not trying to build a universal replacement for the dollar. It is creating protected financial zones for trade with sanctioned countries, weakening U.S. leverage while preparing Beijing for possible Western penalties if tensions over Taiwan escalate.

What to watch

Washington’s next test will be whether it can target Chinese refiners, banks and companies linked to Iranian oil without triggering a broader economic confrontation with Beijing. The expansion of yuan settlement and state-backed digital payment platforms will also determine how much power U.S. sanctions retain in any future deal with Tehran.

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The latest

A US intelligence mission launched to investigate the UAE’s G42 ultimately helped clear Abu Dhabi’s path to advanced American technology, according to The Wall Street Journal. The operation shifted Washington’s debate from whether the UAE should become an AI power to how quickly the United States should help it get there.

Veteran CIA operative Jonny Gannon arrived in Abu Dhabi in 2023 under diplomatic cover while serving as the agency’s station chief. His assignment was to determine whether Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed and G42 could protect sensitive US technology from reaching China.

The Journal reported that Gannon gathered intelligence on the company’s Chinese contacts while quietly advising its executives on the problems they needed to resolve. After receiving US warnings, G42 said it removed $150 million in Huawei equipment and offered Washington access to its data centers and staff. Gannon later briefed senior American officials on the company’s progress.

Details

• Initial threat: Biden officials considered blacklisting G42 in 2023 over its links to Chinese companies.
• Sensitive history: G42 emerged from a unit led by CEO Peng Xiao at DarkMatter, a cybersecurity company linked to surveillance operations and a US investigation.
• Washington’s demand: US officials told Sheikh Tahnoon that the UAE had to choose between the American and Chinese technology ecosystems at the most advanced level.
• Emirati response: Abu Dhabi accepted external audits, removed Chinese equipment and strengthened security and compliance controls.
• Internal divide: Supporters argued that integrating the UAE into the US system would keep it away from China, while critics feared the loss of America’s technological advantage.
• Final outcome: The Biden administration created a framework for chip exports before the Trump administration expanded access and temporarily lifted caps on G42.

Between the lines

The story exposes a new gray zone where intelligence, diplomacy and commercial interests converge. Washington used classified findings not simply to isolate a suspected partner, but to reshape it around US requirements. The UAE, in turn, converted intense scrutiny into recognition of its role in the global AI race.

What’s next

The arrangement will be tested as Abu Dhabi builds Stargate UAE with advanced US chips. Washington will monitor G42’s separation from Chinese technology, while the UAE seeks to prove it can protect sensitive systems and establish itself as a global AI center.

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The latest

The US-Iran conflict entered a more dangerous phase after two American service members were killed and a third went missing in a ballistic missile and drone attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. They were the first US troops killed by hostile fire since the April truce, bringing the American military death toll in the war to 16.

The United States launched a retaliatory operation lasting more than five hours, marking its eighth consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Central Command said the attacks targeted Revolutionary Guard forces responsible for the Jordan assault, along with coastal surveillance, air-defense and maritime facilities and missile and drone storage sites.

Iran continued attacking US bases and American allies, targeting Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Oil facilities and power and desalination plants were damaged in Kuwait, while Tehran launched further attacks against Camp Arifjan and the Buehring and Ali Al Salem bases. The escalation comes as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have effectively collapsed and Washington has reinstated its blockade of Iranian ports.

Details

• US casualties: Four additional service members were hospitalized in Jordan and later discharged, while personnel with minor injuries returned to duty.
• Strike locations: US attacks reportedly hit Qeshm Island and the southern cities of Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad.
• Civilian infrastructure: Iran reported damage to bridges, roads and a desalination plant in Jask, potentially leaving about 10,000 people without water.
• Kuwait: The attacks caused damage, injuries and fires, forcing Kuwait Airways to reschedule most of its flights.
• Saudi Arabia: Iran said it targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj, while warnings were issued for Al-Kharj and Yanbu.
• Deal abandoned: Tehran said it was no longer bound by the memorandum, accusing Washington of undermining its control over Hormuz.

Between the lines

The deaths increase pressure on Trump to respond forcefully while narrowing his political room to step back. As attacks increasingly reach civilian, energy and water infrastructure, a confrontation centered on Hormuz risks becoming a regional war that neither side can easily contain.

What to watch

Attention will turn to the scale of the next US response, the fate of the missing service member and whether Washington begins striking major energy and infrastructure targets. Continued Iranian attacks on Gulf states and their impact on shipping, oil prices and diplomacy will also be critical.

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Andrew and Tristan Tate were arrested in Miami after British authorities sought their extradition on an expanded UK prosecution. The US Marshals Service confirmed the arrests on a sealed warrant, while the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) announced additional charges that significantly widen an existing criminal case. Prosecutors said the new allegations increase the number of alleged victims to seven and relate to offences dating back more than a decade. The brothers deny all allegations and continue to face separate criminal proceedings in Romania.

Details

• Miami arrests: The US Marshals Service confirmed Andrew and Tristan Tate were arrested in Miami on a sealed warrant issued as part of a UK extradition request.
• Expanded prosecution: The CPS filed additional charges against both brothers, significantly broadening an existing UK case that had already been before the courts.
• Andrew Tate charges: Prosecutors said Andrew Tate faces seven additional counts of rape, three counts of arranging or facilitating trafficking for sexual exploitation, three assault counts and 19 offences involving indecent images of a child and extreme pornography.
• Tristan Tate charges: Tristan Tate was charged with one count of sexual assault, two counts of rape and three counts of arranging or facilitating trafficking for sexual exploitation.
• More alleged victims: Prosecutors said the latest allegations relate to offences allegedly committed between July 2010 and August 2017, increasing the total number of alleged victims in the UK case to seven.
• Separate Romanian proceedings: The brothers also face unrelated criminal proceedings in Romania on allegations including rape and human trafficking. Those cases are separate from the UK prosecution, and the brothers deny wrongdoing.
• Defence response: Attorney Joseph McBride said the brothers are innocent and expressed confidence they would ultimately “walk free,” arguing the extradition request and prosecution would not withstand legal scrutiny.

What to Watch

US courts will begin considering Britain’s extradition request, determining whether Andrew and Tristan Tate can be returned to the UK to face the expanded prosecution. Meanwhile, prosecutors in Britain will continue preparing the case, while the brothers’ separate Romanian proceedings remain ongoing.

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Jordan has become a key battlefield in the confrontation between the United States and Iran after U.S. officials said American forces were targeted in four Iranian attacks over five days. The latest strike killed two U.S. service members and left another missing, a development that could push Washington toward expanding its military campaign against Iran, according to The New York Times and U.S. officials.

Details

• Repeated attacks: U.S. officials said the four attacks targeted American bases in Jordan, injuring dozens of personnel and damaging several Black Hawk helicopters.
• Jordan’s new role: According to U.S. officials, the Pentagon moved forces from Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE to Jordan and Israel before the conflict as regional basing options became more constrained.
• Azraq air base: Officials said Iran struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base twice within 48 hours. The first attack wounded about 20 U.S. troops, while the second killed two service members and injured several others.
• Iran’s account: The Iranian military said it targeted fuel storage facilities at the U.S. base in Zarqa with drones, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, cited by the semi-official Fars News Agency, said it used missiles and drones against aircraft shelters.
• Changing tactics: A U.S. official said Iran has begun combining ballistic missiles with one-way attack drones in coordinated strikes to complicate U.S. and Jordanian air defenses.

Background

Jordan has long hosted U.S. military bases and logistics hubs supporting operations across Syria, Iraq, and the wider region. As the U.S.-Iran confrontation has intensified, the country has taken on greater importance after Washington repositioned forces from several Gulf states to Jordan, according to U.S. officials.

Between the lines

If the U.S. account is accurate, the frequency of the attacks suggests Iran is expanding its focus beyond traditional U.S. bases in the Gulf to alternative operational hubs, making Jordan a direct component of the broader deterrence struggle.

What to watch

Attention will focus on the scope of the U.S. response after U.S. Central Command announced a new round of airstrikes on Iran, and on whether further attacks against American bases in Jordan follow.

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