The latest:
The United States has advised Saudi Arabia not to deploy ground troops to Yemen for as long as the American-Iranian war continues, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The Trump administration is still supplying intelligence, targeting data and refueling, but has stayed out of offensive operations against the Houthis. The disagreement extends beyond aid volume to the military options open to Riyadh.
Details:
- The casualties: Houthi attacks have killed at least 18 people and forced the closure of the kingdom’s main airport, with hundreds of flights suspended, according to Bloomberg. Schools shifted to remote learning and firms in Riyadh’s financial district moved staff online, less than two weeks before the Future Investment Initiative conference convenes.
- The Trump call: Trump spoke with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday after the Riyadh airport attack that killed an American citizen, but offered no pledge to strike the Houthis, Bloomberg reported. He has declined to commit to strikes despite Riyadh’s requests, then issued a warning to the group on social media Tuesday.
- The oil accusation: Trump accused the Houthis of deliberately driving up oil prices at Iran’s direction ahead of the US midterm elections set for 3 November. He reminded the group of the heavy American bombardment it absorbed a year earlier, saying he would return to the file after the vote.
- Riyadh’s calculation: Saudi Arabia shows little appetite for returning to talks with the Houthis and believes it must inflict military punishment first, according to sources familiar with official thinking. Leaders fear negotiating from weakness would convince the group it can dictate terms and widen its gains.
- The Houthi timing: The group chose this moment to escalate in order to maximize the leverage it and Tehran hold in negotiations to end the American-Iranian war, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
- The relationship test: Mohammed bin Salman has sought direct military backing from Trump without securing a commitment, Bloomberg reported. The crown prince spent years cultivating the president and in November raised pledged Saudi investment in the United States to 1 trillion dollars alongside a defense agreement, which has not translated into American participation in the new Yemen war.
- European response: Britain provided an aerial refueling aircraft and France pledged military personnel, radars and air defense systems to protect the Yanbu oil terminal. Saudi requests for additional British defensive assistance have gone unapproved, according to sources familiar with the matter.
- Gulf distance: Other Gulf states have limited themselves to political solidarity rather than joining the war, Bloomberg reported, linking that to Saudi-Emirati differences over Yemen and Sudan and to the region’s continuing recovery from Iranian attacks on their own territory.
- Two fronts: Saudi defenses now face threats from the Houthis in Yemen and Iran-backed factions in Iraq, sources said, straining interception systems and air coverage across a country packed with airports, cities and critical oil facilities.
- The economics: The government now expects the economy to contract 3.6% this year, against pre-war estimates of close to 5% growth. Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg’s chief emerging-markets economist, said Saudi Arabia had already shifted from capital exporter to an economy that needs to import financing, and an escalating war could raise its cost.
Background:
Mohammed bin Salman launched the campaign against the Houthis roughly a decade ago and has been Saudi Arabia’s effective ruler since 2017. Bloomberg describes the current situation as among the largest crises he has faced in that period.
Between the lines:
Bloomberg’s reporting frames an alliance that has not converted into combat support: the trillion-dollar investment pledge and the defense agreement produced intelligence and refueling, not strikes. Barbara Leaf, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, warned that expanding Saudi offensive operations could prompt the Houthis to widen their own campaign, raising risks to facilities and cities inside the kingdom.
What’s next
The Future Investment Initiative conference opens in under two weeks, a test of investor appetite with the airport closed. Trump has tied any renewed action against the Houthis to the period after the 3 November midterm elections.
