The latest:
A large prisoner-of-war release was the only concrete outcome of two days of US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi that ended Wednesday, Reuters reported. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators each described progress, while US envoy Jared Kushner said no trust currently exists between the two sides and gaps remain on territory. It was their first peace talks in nine months.
Details:
- The US read: Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, said mediators appealed to each side’s interests and that he is convinced a path to peace exists. He said territorial questions were raised in the Emirati capital and will be the hardest to solve, with compromise possible in some areas and others needing further discussion.
- The deadlock: With talks blocked on land, Ukraine rejected President Vladimir Putin’s demand that it hand over the entire eastern Donbas region in exchange for peace, Reuters reported. US mediators tried to steer discussion toward security guarantees and reconstruction instead. No public sign emerged that Putin has dropped the demand.
- Ukraine’s position: Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia said the talks were difficult, with the Russian delegation arriving under strict instructions, but said they produced momentum toward a solution before year-end. He gave no details, and said future rounds must be multilateral rather than trilateral and include European officials.
- Russia’s position: Chief Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said understanding was reached on some issues but was reserved about European states joining, telling a news conference it was unclear what Moscow could discuss with the European Union since it has offered no new proposals. State agency TASS quoted the Kremlin saying Putin is open to EU contact.
- Europe shut out: European and NATO security advisers travelled to Abu Dhabi and met US and Ukrainian envoys, but the Russian delegation refused to meet them. European officials argue broader security talks should follow a ceasefire, and that Russia should not shape European security arrangements or be rewarded for starting the war.
- The next stops: Kushner said he and fellow envoy Steve Witkoff would travel to Moscow on Thursday for talks with Putin, where they will raise widening the process to European partners, whom he said belong at the table. He said Europe’s security architecture could form the basis of an agreement, without detailing how.
- War continues: Each side said the other attacked overnight. Officials said Russia struck six major power stations in central Ukraine, and a regional governor said an attack on a crowded market in Odesa region killed three. Local authorities reported one person killed by a Ukrainian drone strike in Russia’s Belgorod region.
- The battlefield: Russian forces hold roughly a fifth of Ukraine, much of it seized before the 2022 invasion, and their advance has slowed this year. With the front line largely static, Moscow has bombarded Ukrainian cities and energy sites while Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure.
- The leverage question: Analysts told The New York Times that trade incentives, including sanctions relief and a diesel deal brokered before the midterms, have done little to soften Putin’s core demands on Ukraine’s defences, alliances and Europe’s security architecture. Eric Green, a former National Security Council Russia director, said deals may sway oligarchs but not Putin.
Background:
Before its February 2022 invasion, Russia demanded NATO forces withdraw from states that joined after 1997, which the alliance rejected. Russian officials increasingly want a broad European security deal settled before war details. Trump said last week the conflict was near a settlement that could include security guarantees for Europe.
Between the lines:
The structure of the Abu Dhabi round favours Moscow’s sequencing: Russia refused to meet the Europeans, Medinsky dismissed EU input, and the only deliverable was a prisoner exchange that costs Putin nothing on territory. Analysts cited by The New York Times assess he sees little reason to stop fighting while Ukraine’s air defences thin ahead of winter.
What’s next
Kushner and Witkoff meet Putin in Moscow on Thursday, then Zelenskiy in Ireland. Watch whether Moscow accepts European participation, whether the prisoner release is executed, and whether Putin shifts on the Donbas demand.
