Gargash: Gulf needs deterrence and diplomacy together, not a choice

The latest:

Deterrence and diplomacy are not competing options in the Gulf, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, said at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate. He argued that deterrence is not an end in itself but a tool to stop further aggression and build the political conditions diplomacy needs. He said it was perhaps too early to judge how the US midterm elections would shape Washington’s approach to Iran.

Details:

• The core argument: Gargash said the two principles reinforce one another rather than contradict each other, framing deterrence as preventive rather than punitive. He described its purpose as preventing further aggression while opening political space for negotiations to work, rejecting the premise that Gulf states must pick one track over the other.
• The US election angle: Gargash said it may be too early to assess the impact of the US midterm elections on Washington’s approach towards Iran. He added that he remained hopeful the outcome would reinforce efforts to pursue diplomatic solutions ensuring lasting peace and stability in the Gulf, without naming any specific negotiating track.
• Iran’s offer: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that security could return to the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets Tehran’s demands, under a proposal he called the two-day plan. He said the plan reflected Iran’s utmost good faith.
• Tehran’s accusations: Baghaei claimed US actions against Iran were criminal, saying Washington had attacked Iran twice in less than nine months while negotiations were under way. He also accused the US of failing to honour commitments under what he called an Islamabad understanding, saying it lasted less than two weeks.
• The shipping disruption: Iran said an attack on what it described as enemy navigation systems had halted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint linking Gulf producers to global markets. Baghaei did not set out what specific steps Washington would have to take to trigger the two-day timeline.
• Washington’s posture: US President Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran were unlikely if talks progress, tying further military action to the state of negotiations. The US also asked Iraq to shut most of its border crossings with Iran, according to reporting on the request.
• The UAE on Saudi Arabia: The UAE Foreign Ministry strongly condemned attempts by Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack several parts of Saudi Arabia, calling them a gross breach of Saudi sovereignty and a threat to its security and stability. It reaffirmed full solidarity with the kingdom and support for measures safeguarding stability.
• Other pressure points: Attacks resumed on the Khor Mor gas field in Iraqi Kurdistan, a facility central to the region’s domestic power supply. Qatar’s Prime Minister is due to meet Trump at the White House as negotiations with Iran stall, keeping Gulf mediation channels active alongside the military track.

Between the lines:

Gargash’s refusal to separate the two tracks reads as a defence of the Gulf position in a moment when both are visibly live: Iran is offering a two-day route to restoring Hormuz security, while Trump is conditioning further strikes on negotiating progress. His hope that the midterms strengthen diplomacy signals Abu Dhabi expects Washington, not Tehran, to set the pace.

What’s next

Watch the Qatari Prime Minister’s White House meeting with Trump, any US response to Iran’s two-day plan, and whether oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume.