Axios: Trump weighs resuming Iran war as Qatari two-day deal circulates

The latest:

A decision on resuming all-out war with Iran is coming soon, President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday, after meeting his national security advisers on Iran for the first time since the election. He said he would rather not destroy the rest of the country, but might have to. Two U.S. officials said the session was part of his weekly intelligence briefing.

Details:

• The three options: Trump is weighing new strikes to ensure Iran’s nuclear program cannot be revived, continued economic strangulation of the Iranian government, or a negotiated deal extracting significant concessions from Tehran, according to Axios. The White House has not indicated which path is favored or when the decision lands.
• His own words: Asked whether Washington would go further with strikes, Trump said the aim would be to ensure Iran’s nuclear program is dead and “it will never happen again.” He told reporters they would know soon enough, without setting any deadline.
• The Qatari draft: Qatari mediators continued talks with the Iranians and the White House on reciprocal steps over two days, Axios reported. On day one, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade and release some frozen Iranian funds; Iran would formally invite IAEA inspectors to bombed nuclear sites, resting on an agreement reached in Cairo a year ago.
• Day two: Under the same draft, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, after which nuclear negotiations would resume with a focus on Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, regional sources said.
• Regional diplomacy: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held multiple phone calls Thursday with mediators from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Egypt, according to Axios, as Trump weighed his next move. The outcome of those calls was not announced.
• The Moscow track: Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a central figure in indirect talks with Washington, met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Thursday, days after a Putin-Rezaei call and Russian offers to mediate between the two sides.
• Tehran’s conditions: Rezaei said he carried a message to Putin from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and that Iran had given the Americans seven conditions for diplomacy. Until those are met, he said, Hormuz stays closed and no negotiations take place. He said Putin stressed readiness to help end the war.
• Military posture: U.S. Central Command is finalizing preparations to potentially resume major combat operations in Iran but has not received a new directive from Washington, a U.S. official said. No timeline for such an order has been disclosed.
• The carrier signal: A third Navy carrier strike group arriving in the region would be one indicator of renewed strikes, officials said. A U.S. official said the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group begin a port call in Singapore on Friday and will not reach CENTCOM’s area before mid-November.

Background:

The midterm election was viewed as an inflection point for Trump on whether to unleash a new wave of bombing to force an end to the war. Thursday’s session was the first time he and his top national security advisers discussed Iran since the vote.

Between the lines:

The two tracks point in opposite directions. Qatar’s draft begins with sanctions relief and ends with Hormuz reopening, while Rezaei says Hormuz stays shut until seven Iranian conditions are met first. Meanwhile CENTCOM is readying combat operations without an order, and the carrier that would signal strikes is still weeks away.

What’s next

Watch for a directive to CENTCOM, the Theodore Roosevelt’s movement toward the Middle East after its Singapore port call, and whether Iran issues the IAEA invitation that would trigger the Qatari plan’s first day.