The latest:
Attacks launched from Yemen are striking Saudi cities, pulling the kingdom back into a war it spent years trying to escape. Saudi authorities said at least three people were killed this week, including a Saudi pilot, in Houthi strikes on several airports inside the kingdom. Riyadh is now backing Yemeni allies in a new offensive against the group, named Yemen Dawn.
Details:
- The escalation: Yemen’s civil war reignited this summer and sharply escalated last month, ending years of relative quiet, CNN reported. Houthi forces seized ground near the Bab al-Mandab strait, declared a naval blockade on Saudi shipping and struck oil facilities and pipelines, disrupting crude supplies and pushing prices higher.
- The trigger: In July, Iran sent a commercial aircraft to carry a Houthi delegation to Tehran for Khamenei’s funeral, defying the Saudi air blockade. Riyadh bombed the Houthi-controlled airport in Sanaa to stop the landing, and the group declared the truce over in the largest escalation since 2022.
- The Emirati rupture: Saudi warplanes bombed a shipment of Emirati military vehicles bound for Yemen last year, fracturing a decade-long alliance. Riyadh accused Abu Dhabi in a rare media campaign of fueling instability in Sudan and Yemen, and Emirati forces withdrew, leaving the kingdom to face the crisis alone.
- The vacuum: Fighters aligned with the UAE say Abu Dhabi’s exit left a power gap Riyadh never filled. A southern Yemeni official, speaking anonymously, said there was no orderly transition and that Saudi commanders failed to replace the efficiency of the Emirati command-and-control system.
- The assessment: Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group said the Saudis misread the situation, arguing Riyadh was unprepared for a Houthi offensive and lacked coordination with the Yemeni forces it inherited. He said territorial losses damaged allied morale and that Houthi weapons now reach multiple Saudi cities.
- The American gap: Sources told CNN that Prince Mohammed called Trump twice last month urging strikes on the Houthis, and Trump declined. Washington met the group in Oman to preserve its own ceasefire; the Houthis said their war targets Saudi Arabia alone, leaving US shipping free in the Red Sea.
- The hedging: Prince Mohammed traveled to Egypt to meet President Sisi, then hosted Emirati Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed in Riyadh. France agreed to deploy defensive assets including personnel, Britain is sending a refueling aircraft, and more than 100 US military advisers provide intelligence and targeting support.
- The new bloc: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed after an emergency meeting in Riyadh on Monday to activate collective deterrence under the Mecca joint defense agreement, concluded earlier this year. Pro-Emirati forces appear to be joining the offensive, suggesting a partial Saudi-Emirati rapprochement.
- The cost at home: Regional turmoil has canceled or suspended film festivals, award ceremonies and concerts, while attacks on oil infrastructure have hit exports and major projects have been scrapped. The kingdom’s flagship financial conference, set for late October, faces mounting pressure.
- The limits: Hisham al-Omeisy of the European Institute of Peace said the Saudi-backed camp must unify its command centers and resolve factional disputes, warning that battlefield gains are worthless if the Yemeni government cannot hold the territory it takes.
Background:
Saudi Arabia spent 11 years trying to contain the conflict on its southern border, fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis, then pursuing peace talks with them and restoring ties with Tehran, their main backer. A four-year ceasefire was already fragile before this summer.
Between the lines:
Michael Ratney, the former US ambassador to Riyadh, argued the Saudis built their worldview on the American partnership and never structured their military to fight alone. Read against the declined Trump calls and the Oman meetings with the Houthis, the French, British, Turkish and Pakistani arrangements look less like expansion than substitution. Analysts see two possible exits — a separate Gulf settlement with Iran, or escalated strikes on Houthi leadership — and expect neither to end the war soon.
What’s next
Watch the late-October financial conference in Riyadh and whether it proceeds, the trajectory of the Yemen Dawn offensive and territorial control near Bab al-Mandab, and any movement in US-Houthi contacts in Oman.
